Whalesbook
Toh, numbers zabardast, par stock kyun gira?
Bank of Baroda ne Q4 FY26 ke liye jo business numbers diye hain woh toh ekdum solid hain. Global total business 13.93% badh kar ₹30.78 lakh crore ho gaya hai, yeh sab deposits 12% aur advances 16.2% ki strong growth ki wajah se hua. Lekin market ka mood thoda alag hi tha, kyunki share price 0.8% neeche band hua, aur pichhle mahine toh 16.5% ka drop already ho chuka tha. Investors ke liye ye thoda confusing scene hai.
Broker aur Analysts kya keh rahe hain?
Aisa lagta hai ki investors sirf headline growth se khush nahi hain. Ho sakta hai ki woh profit margins, Net Interest Income (NII), ya phir overall public sector banks ko lekar jo market sentiment hai, uspar zyada focus kar rahe hon. Pichle saal Q4 mein bhi Net Profit badhne ke baad bhi share 8.1% gira tha, Margin pressure ki wajah se. Current valuation toh attractive hai, P/E ratio 6.6x hai sector average 9.35x ke muqable, par public sector banks hamesha discount par trade karti hain.
Worries aur Opportunities
Asset quality mein Sudhar dikh raha hai, Gross NPAs ab 2.04% hain, jo pehle 2.26% the. Par agar future mein loan defaults badhe ya asset quality mein koi gadbad hui toh profitability par asar pad sakta hai. Moody's aur S&P ne Indian banking sector ko stable bataya hai, par global tensions aur regulatory changes risk ban sakte hain.
Analysts abhi bhi Bank of Baroda ko lekar optimistic hain. Unka consensus 'Buy' rating hai aur average target price ₹331.33 hai, matlab 27% tak ka upside potential. Revenue 5% aur PAT 13% badhne ka estimate hai FY26 ke liye. Waise, 27 January 2026 ko union strike ka bhi ek potential risk hai.