Whalesbook
Kya chal raha hai is stock ke saath?
Yaar, Bajaj Housing Finance ka stock ekdum gire hue mood mein hai. Jab ye list hua tha toh ekdum craze tha, 110% ke premium par list hua aur ₹188.5 tak pahunch gaya tha. Par ab kya hua? Stock 60% gir gaya hai aur apne IPO price ₹70 ke bilkul paas, ₹73.85 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai. Pichhle mahine, March mein bhi isne 15% ka gap dekha tha, jo iske debut ke baad sabse bada monthly fall tha.
Valuation ka Chakkar
Jab IPO aaya tha, tab toh investors ne dil khol kar paisa lagaya, bidding ₹3 lakh crore se bhi upar thi. Par ab market inke valuation ko lekar thoda serious ho gaya hai. Company ka market cap ₹63,000 se ₹67,700 crore tak hai. Iska P/E ratio 25.4x se 27.4x chal raha hai, jo ki Indian Diversified Financial industry ke average P/E 19.6x se kaafi zyada hai. Aadhar Housing Finance aur LIC Housing Finance jaise competitors se bhi ye zyada expensive lag raha hai. Matlab pehle wala excitement kam hua aur ab log fundamentals dekh rahe hain.
Technicals aur Analysts ki Rai
Technically dekho toh stock ekdum oversold ho gaya hai. RSI 19 par hai, jo selling pressure ke rukne ka sign de sakta hai, par filhaal trend ekdum negative hai, sabhi major moving averages ke neeche hai. Analysts bhi abhi confuse hain. Kul 13 analysts mein se 6 log 'Buy' keh rahe hain, 3 'Hold' aur 4 'Sell' ki salaah de rahe hain. Target prices bhi alag alag hain, HSBC ne ₹80 ka target diya hai toh ICICI Securities ne ₹125 ka, average target ₹97.69 aur ₹112.50 ke beech hai. Lekin stock current price in targets se bhi neeche hai, toh immediate upar jaane ki zyada ummeed nahi lag rahi.
Aamdani aur Growth ka Game
Waise toh company ka AUM growth accha raha hai, 28% CAGR se badha hai FY20 se Q3 FY26 tak, aur aage bhi 24-26% growth ka andaaza hai. Par valuation abhi bhi ek sawaal hai. JM Financial kehti hai ki ye FY28 ke estimated book value ka 2.3 times par trade kar raha hai, jo ki aksar affordable housing finance companies (1.3x-1.9x) se bhi zyada hai. Housing finance sector mein competition badh raha hai, jisse margins par dabav aa sakta hai. Q3 FY26 mein profit ₹664.89 crore tha, jo 21.33% YoY badha, par PAT margin thoda kam ho gaya. Aur haan, company ne ab tak koi dividend bhi nahi diya hai.
Aage Kya?
Ab sab investors Q4 ke business update ka besabri se intezar kar rahe hain. Agar company apna growth track record maintain kar pati hai aur competition mein margins ko control kar leti hai, toh shayad cheezein behtar ho sakti hain. Par filhal, stock ko apni valuation justify karne ke liye aur investors ka confidence jeetne ke liye kaafi mehnat karni padegi. Market ka mood filhal toh girawat ka hai.