Whalesbook
AUM Growth ka Bhoot Sawar!
Bajaj Finance aane wale samay mein apna Assets Under Management (AUM) ekdum zabardast tarike se badhane wala hai. Analysts predict kar rahe hain ki FY27 tak 23% aur FY28 tak 22% growth hogi. Iske peeche car, gold loans jaisi cheezein hain aur company FY27 tak 15-17 million naye customers add karne ka target rakhe hue hai.
Q4 FY26 ke results bhi yehi bata rahe hain. Profit after tax 22% badh kar ₹5,553 crore ho gaya hai. March 31, 2026 tak AUM ₹5.09 lakh crore tak pahunch gaya, aur net interest income bhi 20% upar jaakar ₹11,781 crore ho gaya quarterly.
Efficiency Vs Funding Costs: Kaisa Hai Balance?
Company apni operating expenses kam karne ke liyeFINAI tech ka istemal karne wali hai, jisse FY27 mein Opex mein 30 basis points ki kami aane ki ummeed hai. Lekin ek side effect bhi hai, bond yields badh rahe hain, jisse funding costs badh sakti hain aur Net Interest Margins (NIMs) par pressure aa sakta hai.
Asset quality sudhar rahi hai aur Q4 FY26 mein credit costs kam hokar 1.65% ho gaye hain. Par NBFCs ko banks ki tarah saste deposit nahi milte, unhe market se paisa uthana padta hai jo mehnga hota hai.
Analyst Kya Bol Rahe Hain Aur Valuation Kaisa Hai?
Prabhudas Lilladher ne toh 'BUY' rating dekar ₹1,100 ka target diya hai. Abhi stock TTM P/E 29.8x se 34.01x par trade kar raha hai. Ye valuation traditional banks jaise Indian Bank (~10.30-10.86x) ya banking industry average (~12.6x) se kaafi zyada hai.
Dusre NBFCs se compare karein toh Cholamandalam Investment (~31.67x) aur L&T Finance (~32.67x) ke aas paas hai, par Jio Financial Services (~25.5x) se zyada hai. Baaki analysts bhi positive hain: Jefferies ne ₹1,210 target ke saath 'Buy' diya hai, aur Morgan Stanley ne ₹1,120 target ke saath 'Overweight' rating di hai. Overall, 35 analysts 'OUTPERFORM' karne ko keh rahe hain jinka average target ₹1,047.17 hai.
Dhyan Rakhne Wale Risks Kya Hain?
Agar NIMs aur zyada girte hain ya NBFCs mein funding ke liye competition badh jaati hai, toh profitability par asar pad sakta hai. Banks ke opposite, NBFCs ko cheaper deposit funding nahi milti.
Q4 FY26 mein gross NPAs thoda badh kar 1.01% ho gaye. Agar ye badhte hain ya unsecured loans ya microfinance mein koi issue aata hai, toh dikkat ho sakti hai. Stock ka P/E kaafi fluctuate hua hai, abhi 43.19x ke 10-year median se neeche hai, lekin growth par bahut depend karta hai. Iska market cap ₹5.8 lakh crore hai, isliye wholesale funding aur lending ke cyclical nature ke risks banks se alag hain.
Overall Outlook
Brokerages generally positive hain, 'Buy' ya 'Overweight' rating ke saath. Company ki growth strategy aur tech ka use analysts ko pasand aa raha hai. Lekin funding costs, NIMs aur asset quality par nazar rakhna bahut zaroori hoga.