Whalesbook
Operational Strength Aur Aage Ki Strategy
Toh bhai log, Bajaj Finance ka profit after tax pakka ₹5,550 Crore (approx) aa gaya hai, jo ki pichhle saal se 22% zyada hai. Numbers bilkul waise hi aaye jaise expect kar rahe the analysts. Net Interest Income (NII) mein bhi 20% ka growth dikha hai, aur credit costs bhi kaafi control mein hain, sirf 1.6% annualized. Company ne FY26 ke liye ₹6 per equity share ka final dividend bhi propose kiya hai. Aur bhai, FY27 ke liye 22-24% AUM growth ka target achieve karne ke liye, company plans kar rahi hai ki 1.5 se 1.7 Crore naye customers jodenge, khaas kar gold loans aur tractor/commercial vehicle financing jaise segments mein.
Valuation Ki Mehngai Aur Sector Ke Challenges
Lekin yahan ek bada 'par' hai. Bajaj Finance ka share price jo hai na, woh aajkal apne peers ke comparison mein kaafi expensive lag raha hai. Current P/E ratio around 29.8x se 34.25x ke beech mein hai. Jabki HDFC Bank jaise bade banks 25x aur ICICI Bank 22x ke aas paas trade kar rahe hain. Cholamandalam Investment and Finance (P/E 27.32x) aur SBI Cards (P/E 28.61x) bhi iske saamne saste lag rahe hain.
Aur sirf valuation hi nahi, poore NBFC sector mein bhi kuch challenges chal rahi hain. Regulations thode tight ho gaye hain, sector loan growth bhi thoda slow ho gaya hai (March-Sept 2024 mein sirf 6.6%, jo FY24 ke 18% se kam hai). Funding costs bhi badh rahe hain, jisse NIMs par pressure aa sakta hai. Is wajah se brokerages thoda cautious hain.
Analyst Log Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Ab brokers ki baat karein toh sabka view ek jaisa nahi hai. Macquarie ne 'Underperform' rating di hai. Motilal Oswal ne 'Neutral' rating ke saath ₹1,000 ka target diya hai aur kah rahe hain ki filhaal koi bada catalyst nahi dikh raha. HSBC ₹1,200 target ke saath 'Buy' bol raha hai, jabki Emkay Global ne 'Reduce' karke ₹1,000 target rakha hai. TipRanks par 35 analysts mein se consensus 'Buy' hai, average target ₹1,047 ke aas paas hai. Overall, sabko lag raha hai ki company growth toh karegi, par valuation aur market conditions ko dekh kar thoda careful rehna padega.
Stock Ka Current Scene
Results ke baad share mein thoda upar movement toh dekha gaya tha, par ₹930.00 par close hua. Asset quality ki baat karein toh gross NPAs thode se badh kar 1.01% ho gaye hain, jo pehle 0.96% the. Main risk yahi hai ki agar growth thoda bhi slow hua toh valuation ki wajah se stock gir sakta hai.