Whalesbook
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) ne March quarter ke liye flat net profit report kiya hai. Iska sabse bada reason hai ₹4,349 crore ka impairment loss jo unke upstream assets par hua hai. Haan, revenue 6.3% badhkar ₹1.35 lakh crore ho gaya, lekin profit mein koi khaas growth nahi dikhi.
Kya Share Undervalued Hai?
BPCL ka stock P/E ratio ke hisaab se 5.09 par trade kar raha hai, jo industry average 13.65 se kaafi kam hai. Isse lagta hai ki stock undervalued ho sakta hai.
Lekin, sab log isse kharidne ko nahi keh rahe. Nuvama Research ne 'Reduce' rating de rakhi hai aur target price ₹277 rakha hai. Unka kehna hai ki future earnings kam ho sakti hain, West Asia conflict aur LPG losses isko aur affect karenge. Unhone FY27/28 ke EBITDA estimates bhi 19% aur 18% kam kar diye hain. Agar June quarter mein kuch dip aaya toh surprise nahi hoga.
Brokerages ke Alag Views
Wahi, Emkay Research ne 'Add' rating di hai aur target price ₹350 rakha hai. Unhone kaha ki BPCL ka Q4FY26 ka EBITDA/APAT unke estimates se 29%/41% upar tha, marketing margins badhne ki wajah se. Unka kehna hai ki crude supply July 2026 tak secure hai.
Motilal Oswal ne ek neutral view rakha hai aur target price ₹265 diya hai. Woh marketing outlook aur capex ko lekar thode cautious hain.
Important Points
- Risk: ₹4,349 crore ka impairment loss, jo BPRL ke investments se related hai.
- LPG Loss: FY26 mein ₹12,318.52 crore ka under-recovery hua hai LPG bechne par.
- Debt: Standalone gross debt 98% badhkar ₹105 billion ho gaya hai, par company target rakh rahi hai ki debt/equity ratio 1x se neeche rahe.
Overall, BPCL ko lekar analysts confused hain. Nuvama keh raha hai 'Reduce' (₹277), Emkay keh raha hai 'Add' (₹350), aur Motilal Oswal neutral hai (₹265). Dekhna hoga company kaise geopolitical risks manage karti hai aur future mein performance kaise rehti hai.