Whalesbook
So, Axis Securities ne apna game plan reveal kar diya hai, bhai log! April 2026 tak ke liye unhone teen banks ko apni Top Picks ki list mein rakha hai. Yeh hain State Bank of India (SBI), Bajaj Finance, aur Kotak Mahindra Bank. Unka kehna hai ki in stocks mein abhi zabardast upside hai.
Pehle baat karte hain SBI ki. Axis Securities ne ispe 'Buy' rating maintain ki hai aur target price rakha hai ₹1,350. Matlab, potential upside lagbhag 38% ka. Iska reason hai SBI ka credit growth forecast jo 13-15% tak jaa sakta hai, kyuki corporate sector recover ho raha hai aur retail demand bhi steady hai. Analysts ko lagta hai ki SBI apne Net Interest Margins (NIMs) ko 3% se upar maintain rakhega. Aur sabse achhi baat, iska TTM P/E ratio lagbhag 10.5 hai, jo ki baaki banks ke comparison mein kaafi attractive lag raha hai. Stock ne pichhle 3 mahine mein sirf 1% ka dip dikhaya hai, matlab kaafi stable hai.
Ab aate hain Bajaj Finance pe. Axis Securities ne inko bhi 'Buy' call diya hai aur target price set kiya hai ₹1,150, jisse 43% tak ka upside mil sakta hai. Unka forecast hai ki Assets Under Management (AUM) mein 24% aur earnings mein 27% ki Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) dikhegi FY27-28 mein. Funding costs stable rahne aur asset quality improve hone se NIMs bhi 8.7-8.8% ke range mein rahne ki ummeed hai. Return on Assets (RoA) 4.3-4.4% aur Return on Equity (RoE) 19-21% ke aas paas rehne ka estimate hai. Iska TTM P/E ratio lagbhag 27-28 ke aas paas hai, jo isko ek 'growth stock' banata hai.
Teesra naam hai Kotak Mahindra Bank ka. Isko bhi 'Top Pick' bola gaya hai 'Overweight' rating ke saath aur target price ₹515 diya hai, matlab 46% ka upside. Axis Securities ko umeed hai ki credit growth 17% rahega FY26-28 mein, aur unsecured lending mein improvement se credit cost kam hoga. Lekin yahan ek twist hai. Stock pichhle kuch samay se underperform kar raha hai, saal ki shuruat se ab tak 21.04% gir chuka hai. Iska TTM P/E ratio bhi lagbhag 30.6 bataya ja raha hai, jo pichhle do stocks se zyada hai.
Agar valuation ki baat karein, toh SBI ka 10.5 ka P/E isko HDFC Bank ( 15.6x ), ICICI Bank ( 15.2x ), aur Axis Bank ( 14.13x ) jaise peers ke comparison mein kaafi cheap bana raha hai. Bajaj Finance ka 27-28 ka P/E uske growth expectations ko dikhata hai. Kotak Mahindra Bank ka 30.6 ka P/E, uske recent underperformance ko dekhte hue thoda high lag sakta hai, haalanki Axis Securities ko usmein kaafi potential dikh raha hai.
Abhi poore banking sector pe thoda global tension (West Asia mein) ka asar padh sakta hai, jis se oil prices badh sakte hain aur supply chain mein dikkat aa sakti hai. Isse Gross NPAs 10-20 basis points tak badh sakte hain, khaas kar MSMEs ke liye. Credit growth thoda 13% FY27 mein moderate hone ka chance hai aur deposit growth credit se peeche chal raha hai, jisse funding costs thoda badh sakte hain. Lekin overall asset quality stable rehne ki ummeed hai.
Kotak Mahindra Bank ke liye sabse bada risk uska unsecured lending pe zyada depend karna hai. Agar asset quality mein kuch gadbad hui toh dikkat aa sakti hai. Stock pichhle 3 mahine mein 20% gir chuka hai aur apne 52-week low ke kareeb trade kar raha hai, jo market ke caution ko dikhata hai.
Toh bhai log, Axis Securities ne SBI, Bajaj Finance, aur Kotak Mahindra Bank pe apna trust dikhaya hai. SBI ko value play, Bajaj Finance ko growth stock, aur Kotak Mahindra Bank ko high potential pick mana hai. Par hamesha yaad rakho, koi bhi investment karne se pehle apni research zaroor karna, kyuki market mein risks toh rehte hi hain!