Whalesbook
Profit Toh Top Par, Par Stock Gira Kyu?
Aptus Value Housing Finance ke liye Q4 results mast rahe hain. Company ka net profit 26% saal-dar-saal badh kar ₹261 Crore tak pahunch gaya. Income bhi 19% badhi aur disbursements 17% upar gaye. Stock mein bhi thodi 3% ki tezi dikhi. Management ka kehna hai ki tech aur process improvements ke karan yeh sab ho paya hai, aur FY27 mein 22-24% AUM growth ka target rakha hai.
Par Valuation Ka Chakkar Kya Hai?
Sabse interesting baat yeh hai ki company ka RoA 7.9% aur RoE 20.2% jaise metrics sector mein sabse aache hain. CRAR bhi 64% ke aas paas hai, jo growth ke liye acha hai. Lekin, jab stock valuation ki baat aati hai, toh sabse bada sawal khada ho jata hai. Aptus ka TTM P/E ratio sirf 15x hai. Yeh Home First Finance India (jo 24-26x par hai) aur Aavas Financiers (jo 23x par hai) jaise competitors se kaafi kam hai. Industry ka average bhi 23-24x hai. Toh, itne acche results ke baad bhi market isse itna discount kyun de raha hai?
Kahan Hai Tension?
Kuch cheezein hain jo analysts ko pareshan kar rahi hain. Pehle toh, asset quality mein halki kharabi aayi hai, GNPA 1.2% se badh kar 1.5% ho gaya hai. Dusra, company abhi bhi sirf 4 southern states par zyada focus kar rahi hai, jisse risk badh sakta hai agar wahan koi economic issue aata hai. Funding costs badhne ka bhi pressure hai NBFC sector par, aur Aptus ke Net Interest Margins bhi 11.54% se ghat kar 11.17% ho gaye the.
Aage Kya Hoga?
Analysts ke price targets mein bhi kaafi fark hai. Centrum Broking ₹486 tak ka target de raha hai, jabki Antique Stock Broking ₹330 ka target de raha hai. Aptus ko apna growth target achieve karne ke liye funding costs manage karne, asset quality sahi rakhne aur diversification par kaam karne ki zarurat hogi, tabhi shayad iska stock valuation bhi sudhrega.