Whalesbook
Is baar Q3 FY26 ke results mein, Indian two-wheeler companies ne ekdum se kamaal kar diya hai. TVS Motor ne toh apna revenue 37.1% bhaga kar ₹12,476 crore pahuncha diya, vehicle sales mein 27.5% ka boom aur profit toh 52% udd gaya! Hero MotoCorp bhi peeche nahi raha, sales 15.9% badha aur revenue 20.7% upar jaa kar ₹12,328 crore ho gaya. Bajaj Auto ne bhi 9.5% sales volume badhaya aur revenue 18.9% ghuma kar ₹15,220 crore kar diya. Net profit bhi 18.7% badha.
Lekin yahan ek twist hai! Itni badhiya numbers hone ke baad bhi, Friday (Feb 7, 2026) ko stock market mein khaasa reaction nahi dikha. Hero MotoCorp practically flat raha, Bajaj Auto 1.3% neeche gira, aur TVS Motor bhi bas 1.3% hi thoda upar gaya. Ab socho, kyun?
Asal mein baat ye hai ki investors aur analysts sirf sales numbers nahi dekhte, woh aur bhi cheezein dekhte hain. Sabse bada tension hai Valuation. Pata hai TVS Motor ka P/E ratio kitna chal raha hai? 60x se 75x ke beech! Yeh Bajaj Auto ke 29x-33x aur Hero MotoCorp ke 21x-23x P/E se kaafi zyada hai. Matlab, share price already bahut mehnga chal raha hai.
Dusra bada reason hai Rising Costs. Steel aur copper jaise raw materials ke daam lagatar badh rahe hain, jisse companies ke profit margins par pressure aa raha hai. Aur haan, iss quarter mein labor code change hone ki wajah se companies ko one-time expenses bhi hue hain, jinhone results ko thoda affect kiya hai.
Agar margins ki baat karein, toh TVS Motor ka operating profit margin 13.1% raha jo 120 basis points badha, lekin revenue growth ke hisaab se utna mazboot nahi laga. Hero MotoCorp ka margin 14.7% ( 20 basis points up) aur Bajaj Auto ka 20.7% ( 70 basis points up) raha. Toh matlab, sales badhi, revenue bhi badha, lekin profit margin mein utna dum nahi dikha jitna hona chahiye tha.
Analysts ka kehna hai ki TVS Motor ka valuation bahut high hai. Unhone average price targets ₹3,964 se ₹4,180 ke beech diye hain, jo current price se zyada nahi hai, matlab zyada upside nahi dikh raha. Hero MotoCorp ke liye bhi kuch targets neeche jaa rahe hain, jaise ₹5,573 tak, jo current level se kam hai.
Bajaj Auto ke liye ek aur challenge hai ki unka domestic motorcycle market mein share lagatar gir raha hai, ab bas 16% ke aas-paas reh gaya hai. Competitors, jaise TVS Motor, apna share badha rahe hain.
Ab future ki baat karein toh, sabhi companies naye models launch karne ki planning kar rahi hain. Bajaj Auto 8 naye models laane wala hai, TVS Motor electric bikes aur Apache RTX 300 launch karega, aur Hero MotoCorp bhi Karizma XMR 250 aur Scrambler 440 laane ki taiyari mein hai.
Toh bhaiyo, sales numbers toh acche hain, par unke peeche chhipe margin pressure aur high valuations ko nazarandaaz nahi kar sakte. Investors ko abhi thoda sabar rakh ke dekhna hoga ki yeh companies aage kaise perform karti hain aur future mein unke new models kitna kamaal karte hain.