Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyon aur beheno, TVS Motor ne apna Q4 FY25 ka result nikala hai. Dekho, profit toh ₹998 crore pakka kiya hai, jo last year se 31.1% up hai. Par jo analyst log predict kar rahe the, woh number ₹1,041 crore tha, toh halka sa miss ho gaya. Revenue ki baat karein toh ₹12,808 crore tak pahunch gaya, jo ki 34.1% zyada hai aur yeh expectations ke hisaab se hi hai. Toh revenue toh solid hai!
Ab asliyat mein kya hua margins ke saath? EBITDA margin thoda tight ho gaya hai, 80 basis points neeche gir kar 13.1% par aa gaya hai. Iska ek bada reason hai ki company ne issi quarter mein full Production Linked Incentive (PLI) ka benefit le liya. Agar yeh PLI benefits hata dein toh normalized EBITDA margin 12.5% banta hai, jo phir bhi last year se 60 basis points better hai. Matlab internal operations toh improve ho rahe hain, yeh positive sign hai.
Aur ek zabardast khabar yeh hai ki electric vehicles (EVs) ki sales 36% bhaag gayi hai! Yeh EV segment company ke liye ek bada growth engine banta ja raha hai. Three-wheeler sales bhi 37% tezi se badhi hain.
Valuation ki agar baat karein, toh TVS Motor ka P/E ratio lagbhag 55.45 chal raha hai. Bhaiyon, yeh number kafi high hai! Dusri badi companies jaise Bajaj Auto ka P/E 30.14 aur Hero MotoCorp ka 18.5 hai. Industry average toh 14.72 ke aas paas hai. Iska matlab hai ki market TVS Motor se future mein bahut badi growth ki ummeed kar raha hai.
Analyst log bhi generally positive hain, consensus 'Moderate Buy' hai aur average target price ₹4,440 hai, jo current price se lagbhag 20% upar hai. Lekin, kuch cheezein dhyan mein rakhni chahiye. Profit miss hona, margin ka thoda dabav mein aana, aur yeh bahut high P/E ratio - agar company expect ke hisaab se perform nahi kar paayi toh stock mein volatility aa sakti hai. Aur government policies par bhi dependency ek risk ho sakti hai.