Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo aur behno, Maruti Suzuki ne Q4 FY26 mein kamaal ka revenue dikhaya hai, jo 28.2% badh kar ₹52,462.5 crore ho gaya. Sales volume bhi 11.8% badh kar 676,209 units ho gaya, jo ek record hai. Lekin asli picture yeh hai ki net profit 6.9% gir gaya aur ₹3,591 crore pe aa gaya. Ye kyun hua? Iske do bade reasons hain: pehla, company ne investments par ₹750 crore ka mark-to-market loss dekhne ko mila, matlab accounting mein loss. Dusra, margins thoda tight ho gaye, jiski wajah se EBITDAM 11.7% raha. Full year ki baat karein toh revenue 20.2% badha, par profit sirf 1% badha.
Ab margin squeeze ki asli vajah kya hai? Industry mein commodity prices bhad rahe hain, jaise West Asia tensions ki wajah se steel 10% upar, plastics jaise polypropylene 34% upar aur platinum toh 124% bhad gaya! Iska seedha asar company ke profit par padta hai, aur Q4 mein iska asar 0.8% dikha hai EBITM par.
Lekin Maruti Suzuki bhagne ko taiyar hai. FY27 mein inhe domestic PV sales mein 10% growth chahiye, jabki industry 5-7% expect kar rahi hai. Woh apni production capacity bhi badha rahe hain aur unke paas 190,000 orders ka backlog bhi hai. Lekin bhai, competition bhi kam nahi hai. Mahindra & Mahindra second position pe aa gaya hai, aur Tata Motors bhi SUVs mein zor laga raha hai, jahan ab Maruti ka share bas 25% ke aas paas hai. Hyundai bhi peeche nahi hai.
Analysts ki rai bhi alag-alag hai. HSBC aur Goldman Sachs jaise log keh rahe hain 'Buy' karo, par Jefferies ne 'Hold' rating di hai aur FY27-28 ke earnings 9% tak kam kar diye hain. Morgan Stanley ko umeed hai ki Q1 FY27 tak margins theek ho jayenge.
Achhi baat yeh hai ki exports bhi 34.6% badhe hain aur record 447,774 units bicke hain FY26 mein. Lekin asli challenges yeh hain ki market share, khaas kar SUVs mein, kam ho rahi hai aur commodity prices badh rahe hain. West Asia ki situation bhi freight costs badha sakti hai.
Future mein, Maruti Suzuki 7 naye SUVs aur kaafi EVs lane ka plan kar rahi hai FY30 tak. Plus, 8th Pay Commission aur GST changes se bhi demand badhne ki umeed hai. Lekin abhi FY27 ke liye koi firm guidance nahi hai, kyunki geopolitical uncertainties hain. Toh overall, growth hai, lekin challenges bhi kam nahi hain.