Whalesbook
Aakhir Kyun Hua Aisa? (The Real Story)
Arre, revenue toh bhai 676,209 units ki sales volume ke saath 11.8% badh gaya. Aur company ke paas 1,90,000 se zyada cars ka order backlog hai, plus choti gaadiyon pe GST cuts ka fayda. Toh topline toh ekdum solid dikh raha hai.
Lekin asli game toh profit mein hai, jo ₹3,659 Crore pe aakar ruk gaya. Yeh analyston ki ₹4,329.4 Crore ki expectaion se bhi kam hai. Margin 276 basis points collapse hokar sirf 7.31% reh gaya. Matlab, kaam toh bahut hua par kamai kam hui. Yeh sab steel aur aluminium jaise raw material ke mehenga hone aur logistics costs badhne se hua hai.
Competition Aur Market Shift Ka Chakravyuh
Wahi, Maruti ka passenger vehicle market share 40% se niche chala gaya hai, jo 13 saal mein sabse kam hai. Industry ka focus ab SUVs pe zyada hai, aur is segment mein Maruti abhi bhi Tata Motors aur Mahindra & Mahindra se thoda peeche hai. Mahindra toh ab PV registrations mein Hyundai se bhi aage nikal gaya hai, sab SUVs ki wajah se!
Maruti khud 27.5x-28.9x ke TTM P/E pe trade kar raha hai, jo uske 10-year median se kam hai.
Analyst Log Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Brokerages mix reactions de rahe hain. ICICI Direct aur Motilal Oswal jaise log 'BUY' rating de kar ₹16,750 aur ₹15,529 ka target de rahe hain. Par Jefferies jaise experts 'Hold' keh rahe hain, kyunki market share ka loss dikh raha hai. Morgan Stanley ko lagta hai ki Q1 FY27 tak margins theek ho sakte hain.
Aage Ka Rasta Kya Hai?
Maruti apni SUV lineup strong kar raha hai aur exports bhi 49% PV exports mein contribute kar rahe hain. FY27 tak woh 0.5 million units ki capacity aur add karne ka plan kar rahe hain. Analysts FY26-28 ke liye 10% volume, 17% revenue aur 20% EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) predict kar rahe hain. Lekin bhai, inflation aur interest rates ka dhyan rakhna padega, aur overall Indian PV industry FY27 mein 4-6% grow hone ka expect hai.