Whalesbook
Brokerage ko lagta hai ki MRF ka share overvalued hai. Abhi yeh 24.4x FY27 earnings par trade ho raha hai, aur FY28 ke liye 21.7x par. Itna premium justify karna mushkil hai, kyunki Motilal Oswal ka kehna hai ki earnings growth 1% per year se zyada nahi hogi FY28 tak.
Inka yeh bhi kehna hai ki Return on Capital Employed (RoCE) FY27 tak ghata kar 10% ho sakta hai, jo abhi 11.8% hai. Isliye, Motilal Oswal ne target price rakha hai ₹113,936, jo FY28 earnings ke 19x multiple par based hai.
Par yeh bhi dekho: Haal hi mein MRF ne Q4 FY26 ke results release kiye hain jo kaafi acche the. Consolidated revenue 13.7% badh kar ₹8,044 crore ho gaya, aur net profit 37.6% jump kar ke ₹702 crore tak pahunch gaya. Full fiscal year FY26 ke liye revenue ₹30,652 crore (up 11%) aur profit ₹2,355 crore (up 29%) raha. Management ne kaha ki demand acchi hai, GST cuts ka bhi fayda hua, aur woh capacity bhi badha rahe hain. EVs ke liye bhi supplier ban rahe hain.
Lekin, kuch risks bhi hain: Management ne khud bataya hai ki agar upcoming monsoon kamzor raha toh tractor aur tire sales mein slowdown aa sakta hai. Aur Middle East tensions ke karan raw material costs bhi badh rahe hain, jis se operations par pressure aa sakta hai.
Bade players se comparison: MRF ka current valuation dekho toh yeh competitors se kaafi upar hai. Jaise, JK Tyre & Industries 17.37x-17.67x par hai, Apollo Tyres 28.32x-30.25x par, aur CEAT 19.11x-27.7x par. Indian auto ancillary sector mein growth 7-9% expected hai, par MRF ka valuation alag hi level par hai.
Financials aur Quality: Company ka balance sheet strong hai, debt-to-equity ratio 0.163 aur Net Debt to Equity 0.02 hai. Par, earnings mein consistency aur capital employed efficiency ko lekar concerns hain, jiske karan RoCE girne ka estimate hai. MRF ka market share lagbhag 30% hai organized tire sector mein aur EV supplier bhi hai. Par, raw material costs badhne par yeh kitna price badha payegi, yeh ek bada risk hai. Aur dividend payout ratio bhi sirf 5.33% hai, matlab immediate income returns kam milenge.