Whalesbook
FY26 mein Sales Ka Toofaan!
Bhaiyo, FY25-26 mein Indian passenger vehicle (PV) market ne ek naya record set kar diya hai, jisme 4.7 Million se zyada gaadiyan bik gayi! Pichle saal ke comparison mein yeh 8.4% ka jump hai aur pichle sabse bade sale record (4.34 Million units) ko bhi tod diya hai. Mausam FY ke last half mein kaafi change hua; pehle slow tha par baad mein festive season, GST rate adjustments jisse gaadiyan afford karna easy hua, SUVs ka craze aur electric vehicles (EVs) ka badhta market share, in sab cheezon ne sales ko zabardast boost diya.
SUVs ka Raj aur EVs ka Umeed!
Is race mein Maruti Suzuki ne apni top position maintain rakhi hai, unhone 2.4 Million se zyada annual sales ki hai. Mahindra & Mahindra apni killer SUV portfolio ke saath number two par aa gaya hai. Tata Motors bhi kaafi aage badha hai, khaas kar Q4 mein unka performance kamaal ka raha. SUV segment ab market ka ek bada hissa ban gaya hai. Aur EVs ki toh kya hi baat karein, unki sales 85% se zyada badhi hai saal-dar-saal, ab yeh total PV volumes ka 4.9% hai, jo pehle sirf 2.8% tha. Lagbhag 2.29 Lakh EVs bik gaye!
Kaun Kahan Khada Hai?
Market mein valuations bhi interesting hain. Maruti Suzuki, jiski market cap lagbhag ₹3.5 Trillion hai, woh 35x ke P/E ratio par trade kar raha hai. Mahindra & Mahindra, around ₹2.2 Trillion valuation ke saath, 25x P/E par hai, unki SUVs ki wajah se yeh boost mila hai. Tata Motors, jinki valuation lagbhag ₹1.2 Trillion hai, woh 15x ke adjusted P/E par hai; unke EV investments aur market gains dikh rahe hain. Tata Motors EV tech aur battery manufacturing mein heavy invest kar raha hai, jabki M&M SUVs par focus kar raha hai.
Aage Kya Hai Tension?
Market resilient toh hai, par abhi kuch economic aur geopolitical risks hain. Crude oil ke badhte prices internal combustion engine waali gaadiyon ki demand kam kar sakte hain. Interest rates badhne se loan mehnga ho raha hai, jisse khareedne wale kam ho sakte hain. Aur duniya mein chal rahi tensions supply chains ko disturb kar sakti hain, jisse semiconductor ki shortage aur logistics costs badh sakte hain.
FY27 Outlook Down Hua!
Record sales ke bawajood, FY27 ke liye growth rate kam hone ka Andaaza hai. FY26 ka high base ek reason hai, aur global tensions bhi ek factor hain. Crisil Intelligence ka kehna hai ki FY27 mein PV volumes sirf 3-5% grow karengi, jo pehle ke forecasts se kam hai. Analysts demand toh strong dekhte hain, par short-term volatilities ko lekar thoda worried hain.