Whalesbook
April Mein Kaunsi Gaadiyan Biki Sabse Zyada?
Asal mein, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) ne bataya ki April mein total vehicle registrations mein 12.94% ka jabardast jump dekha gaya, jo ki 2.61 million units tak pahunch gaya. Ye historical data mein April ke liye sabse best performance hai! Sabhi sections ne kamaal kiya: two-wheelers mein 13.01% ki tezi, passenger vehicles (PVs) mein 12.21% ka growth, commercial vehicles (CVs) mein 15.02% ka boom, three-wheelers mein 7.19% aur tractors toh 23.22% upar bhaag gaye! Passenger vehicles ke liye inventory bhi 28-30 din tak pahunch gayi hai, matlab supply chain abbe acche se manage ho rahi hai. Wholesale numbers bhi mast hain, PV dispatches mein 25% YoY ka growth aaya hai, urban demand aur SUVs ki pasand iske peeche hai.
Alag Alag Segments Ka Kaisa Hai Haal?
Passenger vehicles mein mostly urban demand ka hi kamaal hai, jiske chalte wholesale mein 25% YoY growth dikha. Maruti Suzuki aur Mahindra & Mahindra ke tractors ne bhi expectations se behtar kiya. Two-wheelers ne apna best-ever April sale record banaya, par domestic market lagbhag flat thi, exports ne support kiya. Commercial vehicles retail sales 15.02% YoY badhi hain. Ab valuations ki baat karein toh, Maruti Suzuki ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 28-29 hai, jabki Mahindra & Mahindra aur Bajaj Auto 21-31 P/E range mein hain. Hero MotoCorp thoda niche 17-20 P/E par hai. Tata Motors ka scene thoda alag hai, consolidated entity ke liye P/E 5.62 tak dikhta hai, aur PV division ke liye 20.26. Ye sab investors ke alag alag views ko dikhate hain.
Badhte Kharch Aur Demand Ke Risks
Par bhai, sab kuch itna bhi smooth nahi hai. Geopolitical tensions ki wajah se raw materials, jaise steel, metals, aur plastics ke daam 10% se 34% tak badh gaye hain. Isse companies ke profit margins par pressure aa raha hai aur future mein supply chain mein dikkatein aa sakti hain. El Niño ka bhi asar ho sakta hai, jisse tractor industry ka growth FY27 mein sirf 0-2% rehne ka andaaza hai. Agar monsoon kamzor raha, toh gaon ki income kam hogi aur vehicles ki demand bhi ghat sakti hai. Pichhle mahine kuch companies ko production mein bhi problem aayi thi, jo supply chain ki kamzori dikhati hai.
FY27 Ke Liye Growth Ka Outlook
ICRA ka kehna hai ki FY27 mein auto sector ka overall growth 3-5% ke aas paas rahega, jo FY26 se kam hai. Sabhi problems ko dekhte hue, analysts thode savdhan hain. Lekin FADA ke according, dealers ka confidence abhi bhi steady hai, aur upcoming months aur FY27 ke liye growth ki ummeed kar rahe hain. Iska matlab hai ki demand toh hai, bas ab companies ko input cost badhne se ladna hoga, supply chain ko control mein rakhna hoga aur rural demand ke changes ko samajhna hoga taaki profit bana rahe.