Whalesbook
So, ICRA ka kehna hai ki FY2027 mein auto sector ka growth pace thoda kam ho jayega. FY2026 mein policy jaise GST changes ne sabko mast boost diya tha, jisse sabki kharidne ki himmat badhi aur confidence bhi.
Commercial Vehicles Ka Kamaal
Sabse zabardast toh Commercial Vehicles (CVs) chale hain. February 2026 mein inki sales 23.8% badhi. Poore FY2026 ke pehle 11 mahino mein, total volumes 12.5% upar gaye hain. ICRA ko lagta hai ki FY2026 mein CV segment 7–9% badhega, aur FY2027 mein yeh growth 4–6% tak aa sakti hai. Zyada interest rates aur used vehicles ki taraf shift hone se yeh speed kam ho sakti hai, khas kar light CVs ke liye.
Two-Wheelers Aur Components Ka Outlook
Two-wheeler (2W) segment bhi recover ho raha hai, gavon mein income badhne aur financing aasan hone se. Domestic sales FY2026 mein 9% badhne ka chance hai, aur FY2027 mein yeh 3–5% tak slow ho jayega. Auto component sector stable lag raha hai, FY2027 mein iska growth 7–9% rehne ka estimate hai. Companies ₹28,000–32,000 crore ka capital spending karne wali hain, mainly apni kamai se. Yeh paisa capacity badhane aur electrification mein lagayenge.
Export Risks Aur Future
Export ki baat karein toh, West Asia se seedha connection kam hai, par India ke passenger vehicle exports ka 25% hissa udhar hi jaata hai. Wahan agar gadbad hui toh component demand par bhi asar pad sakta hai. Supply chain, energy costs aur currency mein changes se bhi risks hain. FY2027 mein slowdown dikh raha hai, par ICRA ka kehna hai ki long-term mein electrification, replacement demand aur gaon ki recovery sector ko support karegi, aur wapas se sustainable, mid-single-digit growth ki taraf le jayegi.