Whalesbook
Ab yeh overall growth kaafi zabardast lag raha hai, lekin alag alag segments mein picture thodi complex hai. Passenger Vehicles (PVs) ka segment 11% badha toh sahi, par iske andar market share mein bade shifts hue hain. Tata Motors ne apna performance sudhara hai aur unki domestic PV sales 30.5% badh kar 59,000 units tak pahunch gayi. Dusri taraf, Maruti Suzuki aur Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) ko thodi mushkil hui. Maruti Suzuki ke saamne production issues aur 1,90,000 pending orders hain, jiski wajah se unka market share gain karna thoda tough ho raha hai. M&M ne bhi 8% growth se 56,331 units beche.
Baki segments mein bhi movement dikhi. Commercial Vehicles (CVs) overall 17% upar gaye, jismein light CVs 22% aur medium & heavy CVs 15% badhe. Yeh economic activity ke liye achha sign hai. Yaar, pichhle saal April mein toh 2-wheelers ki sales 16.7% gir gayi thi, toh is baar ki 14% growth ek solid recovery hai.
Electric Vehicles (EVs) bhi apna share badha rahe hain. April mein 7.3% 2-wheeler sales EVs thi aur 5.7% passenger cars mein. Par bhai, abhi bhi Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) aur CNG waali gaadiyon ka hi raaj hai.
Is recovery ke bawajood, sector mein kuch risks bhi hain. Global tensions, inflation aur supply chain ki problems dikh sakti hain. Maruti Suzuki ke liye production bottleneck ek bada risk hai, aur unka P/E ratio bhi around 22.57 hai, jo kai analysts ko theek nahi lag raha. Kuch toh unhein 'Sell' rating bhi de rahe hain. Tata Motors ko EV adoption ki speed aur regulatory changes se chalna hoga, unki domestic PV business mein FY25 mein revenue decline bhi dikha hai aur P/E ratio bhi 5.92 se 55.78 ke beech fluctuate kar raha hai. M&M ke liye bhi analysts keh rahe hain ki woh 'Modestly Overvalued' ho sakte hain, unka P/E ratio bhi 23-25 ke aas-paas hai, jo ki 10-year average se upar hai. Tata Motors ka stock bhi pichhle 12 mahine mein kaafi volatile raha hai, 250% tak badhne ke baad 13% tak girne ki bhi reports hain.
Overall economic outlook toh accha hai, IMF 6.5% aur World Bank 6.6% growth expect kar rahe hain. Lekin company execution aur economic stability par nazar rakhni hogi.