Whalesbook
So, HSBC ne India ke auto stocks par ek report nikali hai aur unka kehna hai ki long term mein toh inmein value hai, matlab paisa banne ka chance hai. Lekin short term mein investors ko kuch cheezon ka dhyan rakhna padega.
Pata hai, pichhle 6 mahine mein auto stocks 10-30% tak gire hain. Iska main reason hai raw material costs badhna aur global mein jo tension chal rahi hai. HSBC ne isiliye FY27 aur FY28 ke liye earnings estimates bhi adjust kiye hain, kyunki demand thodi slow ho sakti hai aur costs zyada rahengi. Lekin long term mein opportunity hai, bas thoda upar neeche hota rahega abhi.
Ab individual companies ki baat karte hain:
Maruti Suzuki: Maruti ke liye HSBC ka target hai ₹15,000. Unko lagta hai ki unki CNG cars aur aane wale EV/hybrid models kaam aayenge. Lekin bhai, market share kam ho raha hai. 2020 mein 50% se zyada tha, ab 40% reh gaya hai FY25 tak. M&M aur Tata Motors jaise competitors SUV segment mein kaafi aage nikal gaye hain. Tata Punch ne toh Maruti ke top models ko bhi piche chhod diya hai. Maruti ka P/E ratio 26-29 hai, jo growth challenges dikhata hai. Aur agar price increase kiya toh demand par bhi asar pad sakta hai.
Hyundai Motor: Hyundai ke liye target ₹2,200. Inka bhi market share thoda kam hua hai aur ab yeh fourth position par hain, market share 12.5% ke aas paas April 2025 tak. Naye plant aur products aa rahe hain, par domestic competitors se fight tough hai. P/E ratio 24.5 ke aas paas hai, jo theek lag raha hai, par exports par reliance thoda risky hai.
Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M): M&M ke liye target ₹3,900. HSBC ko M&M ke tractor business mein toh strength dikhti hai (market share 42% se zyada India mein) aur SUV segment mein bhi yeh log badh rahe hain. Lekin bhai, P/E ratio 22.5 hai, jo inke 10-year average se zyada hai. Toh thoda overvalued lag raha hai. International business aur new platforms ko execute karne mein bhi risks hain.
Tata Motors CV: Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles ke liye target ₹510. Medium to long term prospects acche lag rahe hain, especially operating efficiency aur Iveco acquisition ke baad. Par short term mein fleet operator orders delay ho rahe hain aur fuel prices ka bhi issue hai. Yeh business economic cycles par depend karta hai.
Eicher Motors: Eicher ke liye target ₹8,000. Royal Enfield premium segment mein mast perform kar raha hai, FY26 mein 23% volume growth dikhaya hai. Lekin P/E ratio bahut high hai, 35.3-43.9! Yeh premium positioning dikhata hai, par export market mein risk hai. Agar export kam hua ya premium demand giri, toh dikkat ho sakti hai.
Ather Energy: Ather ke liye target ₹950. EV market mein market share badh raha hai (18.7% by March 2026) aur stores bhi badh rahe hain. Ather Rizta scooter aur naya network achha kar raha hai. Lekin EBITDA margins negative hain (-3% in Q3 FY26). Matlb abhi bhi profit kamane ke liye paisa chahiye. Competition bahut zyada hai EV mein.
Overall, auto sector mein mixed signals hain. HSBC value toh dekhta hai, par problems hain. Maruti ka market share gir raha hai, Hyundai ko comeback karna hai, M&M ka valuation high hai, Tata CV cyclical hai, Eicher ka valuation risky hai, aur Ather ko profit kamana hai. Agar costs aur badhi toh prices badhani padengi, jisse demand kam ho sakti hai. Geopolitical instability bhi ek factor hai.
Toh bhai, HSBC selective buys recommend kar raha hai. Matlab kuch companies current volatility mein bhi achha kar sakti hain aur long term mein grow hongi. Par investors ko market share, competition, costs aur EV market mein profit kamane ke time par dhyan dena hoga.