Whalesbook
EV Companies Par Costs Ka Double Attack!
Aajkal electric vehicle (EV) banane wali companies ki nind udi hui hai. Ek taraf raw material ke daam badh rahe hain, doosri taraf supply chain mein bhi dikkat chal rahi hai. Europe aur West Asia mein chal rahi gadbadi aur AI infrastructure ki zabardast demand ne sabko pareshaan kar diya hai. Companies ke liye lithium-ion cells, rare earth magnets aur memory chips jaisi zaroori cheezon ke daam bohot zyada badh gaye hain. Isliye, short-term profits par pressure aa raha hai aur ab prices badhane ke alawa koi rasta nahi hai.
Bajaj Aur Hero MotoCorp Ki Halat
Khaas kar Bajaj Auto aur Hero MotoCorp jaise two-wheeler makers ke liye costs ka pressure kaafi zyada hai. Bajaj Auto ka kehna hai ki March quarter mein commodity costs 3.5-4.0% tak badh sakti hain. Hero MotoCorp ne bhi components ke costs mein high single digits (yani 7-9% ke aas-paas) ka izafa report kiya hai. Ather Energy ne bhi warning di hai ki short-term profits kam honge kyunki raw materials aur electronic parts mehenge ho gaye hain. Bajaj Auto ki production capacity bhi 10-15% kam hui hai kuch logistics issues ke karan, jise thoda compensate karne ke liye April mein prices badhaye gaye.
AI Ka Chip Par Asar Aur Geopolitics
AI ki demand ne auto supply chain par pressure daal diya hai, especially memory chips ke liye. Bade chip makers apna capacity AI applications ki taraf shift kar rahe hain, jiske karan RAM aur DRAM chips ke prices 2 se 4 guna badh gaye hain. Samsung, SK Hynix, aur Micron jaise bade players jo 90% se zyada DRAM supply karte hain, unke liye auto sector ka share kam hai, isliye auto companies ke paas bargaining power kam hai aur unhein mehenge rates dene pad rahe hain. Wells Fargo ka andaza hai ki 2026 tak DRAM prices 70-100% badh sakte hain, jiska asar EVs par padega.
Chip ke alawa, battery materials jaise lithium, nickel, cobalt, aur metals jaise aluminium, copper bhi mehenge hue hain. Lithium ke prices toh recent time mein per kilogram 3 guna tak badh gaye hain.
Baaki Auto Companies Bhi Pichhe Nahi
Agar Indian auto sector ki baat karein toh 2026 mein 6-8% growth ka chance hai. Lekin cost pressure sabko feel ho raha hai. Hyundai Motor India bhi May mein prices badhane wala hai. Tata Motors, JSW MG Motor India, BMW India, Mercedes-Benz India, Audi India, aur Honda Cars India ne bhi prices badha diye hain ya badhane wale hain. Mahindra & Mahindra ne bhi apni SUVs aur commercial vehicles ki prices badhai hain.
Company Ratings Aur Targets
Financials dekhein toh Bajaj Auto ka P/E ratio 29.7 hai aur market cap lagbhag ₹2.96 lakh crore. Hero MotoCorp ka P/E ratio 18.4 aur market cap ₹1.06 lakh crore hai. Choice Institutional Equities ne Hero MotoCorp ko 'Buy' rating di hai aur target price ₹6,000 rakha hai. Lekin dusre analysts thode cautious hain. Prabhudas Lilladher ne Bajaj Auto ko 'Hold' bola hai aur target ₹10,400 diya hai. Citi ne 'Sell' rating di hai aur target ₹9,300 rakha hai, jabki Morgan Stanley ne 'Underweight' rating di hai aur target ₹9,259.
Analyst consensus ke hisaab se Bajaj Auto ka 2026 target ₹9,800 ke aas-paas hai, aur Hero MotoCorp ka ₹5,000–5,500 ke beech.
Risk Kahan Hai?
Sabse bada risk toh raw materials ke badhte daam hain, khaas kar battery ke liye lithium, nickel, cobalt, aur memory chips. India ka imported components par zyada depend karna global price fluctuations aur geopolitical issues ke liye expose karta hai. AI data centers ke saamne auto companies kam important hain, isliye unhein zyada prices dene pad rahe hain. Geopolitical issues aur AI chip demand ka combination companies ko prices badhane par majboor kar raha hai, jisse demand kam ho sakti hai. Bajaj Auto ka exports par depend karna bhi currency fluctuations ke liye risk hai.