Whalesbook
Lekin bhaiyo, is Q4 ke kamaal ke baad ab kuch tension wali khabrein aa rahi hain. CEAT management khud bol raha hai ki FY27 ke Q1 mein raw material prices 15-20% tak badh sakti hain compared to Q4 FY26. Yeh ek bada jhatka ho sakta hai company ke liye.
Isi wajah se, Emkay Global jaise badhe brokerage ne stock ko 'REDUCE' rating de di hai aur target price bhi 27% se girakar ₹3,600 kar diya hai. Woh keh rahe hain ki future mein margins par kaafi pressure aayega aur isliye unhone FY27 aur FY28 ke EPS estimates ko 47% aur 17% tak kam kar diya hai.
Mazedaar baat yeh hai ki baaki analysts abhi bhi 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur ₹4,300 se ₹4,900 tak ke targets de rahe hain. Toh yahan analyston mein kaafi alag views hain.
CEAT ne already March 2026 mein replacement market mein prices 5% badha di hain, aur May & June mein bhi badhane ka plan hai. Lekin yeh sab karne se demand kam ho sakti hai, especially jab market itna competitive hai aur consumers price sensitive hain.
Yaad hai, pehle ki reports mein tyre sector ke operating margins 13-13.5% ke aas paas rehne ka andaaza tha, aur March 2025 ki reports toh FY25 mein margins 200-400 basis points girne ki baat kar rahi thi. Toh profit wapas badhana mushkil hoga.
Aur jo Camso acquisition kiya tha, uske benefits bhi abhi der se milenge, FY28 tak shayad. Matlab, near-term mein costs ka pressure bana rahega aur acquisition ke full synergy benefits may take longer to materialize.
Industry growth 6-8% ki expected hai FY26 mein, par natural rubber ke high prices aur US tariffs jaise external risks bhi hain.
Yeh sab tension hone ke bawajood, stock 29 April, 2026 ko 12% se zyada bhaga tha Q4 results ke baad. Par ab yeh cost increase aur demand ka risk kya rang laata hai, yeh dekhna hoga.