Whalesbook
Socho kya hua, aaj toh poora automotive sector ekdum se bhag utha! Nifty Auto index 2.69% tak upar gaya, 26,484 ke level par pahunch gaya. Yeh sab ka credit jata hai Maruti Suzuki ko. Unhone FY26 ke liye record 2.42 million units beche hain aur unka net sales ₹1.74 trillion se upar pahunch gaya, jo ki 20.2% zyada hai pichhle saal se. Is jabardast performance ne Mahindra & Mahindra, Eicher Motors, aur TVS Motor jaise baki auto stocks ko bhi boost diya.
Par ek taraf jahan sales bhag rahi hai, wahan company ke profits mein thoda gadbad hua. Maruti Suzuki ka Q4 FY26 net profit lagbhag 6.9% gir gaya, ₹36 billion par aa gaya. Iska reason tha investments par mark-to-market loss jabki bond yields badh rahe the. Company ne yeh bhi bataya ki supply issues ke karan unka order backlog 190,000 units tak pahunch gaya hai. Management keh raha hai ki SUVs aur EVs bech kar average selling price (ASP) badhane ka chance hai. Par, naye facilities ke kharche bhi thode margin par pressure daal sakte hain. India mein EV sales double ho gayi hai FY26 mein, ab 7.8% tak pahunch gayi hai, lekin abhi bhi zyada cost wale segment mein hi hai. Entry-level EV market mein price aur product ki kami ek bada issue hai.
Ab aage dekhte hain, FY27 ke liye picture thodi mili-juli hai. ICRA ki report kehti hai ki industry mein wholesale volume growth sirf 3-5% rahega, jo FY26 ke estimate 12.5% growth se kaafi kam hai. Passenger vehicles (PV) mein 4-6% aur two-wheelers mein 3-5% growth ka forecast hai. Input costs, jaise rubber aur energy, bhi badh rahe hain, jisse profits par pressure aa sakta hai. Aur haan, kuch auto stocks ke valuations toh waise hi bahut high hain. Jaise Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles ka P/E 50.87 hai, TVS Motor ka 57-81 aur Eicher Motors ka 35-45. Matlab, market ne inme kaafi growth pehle se hi price kar liya hai. Dekhna hoga ki companies Q1 FY27 mein price badha kar costs ko kaise manage karti hain.
Toh overall, Maruti Suzuki ne toh kamaal kar diya, aur isse pura sector jump kar gaya. Lekin analysts keh rahe hain ki FY27 mein growth thoda slow ho sakta hai aur costs bhi badh sakte hain. Investors ko ab yeh dekhna hoga ki companies kaise is challenging environment mein profits maintain karti hain, khaas kar EV transition ke time pe.