Whalesbook
FY26 Mein Auto Sector Ka Game Plan?
Axis Securities keh raha hai ki India ka auto aur auto ancillary sector FY26 mein stable EBITDA margins dikhayega. Pata hai kyu? Kyunki log premium models zyada kharid rahe hain aur volumes bhi badh rahe hain, especially two-wheelers (2Ws), commercial vehicles (CVs), aur tractors mein. Is growth ka reason hai naye premium models, GST cuts ka impact, rural economy ka recover hona, aur government ki supportive policies. Q3 FY26 mein bhi sector ne achha perform kiya tha, exports aur tractors mein toh khaas kar. Ye sab dekh ke lagta hai ki sector long-term growth ki taraf ja raha hai.
Lekin ek baat hai, overall vehicle registrations January 2026 mein 17.6% badhe hain, par ye sab segment mein nahi hua. Global auto suppliers toh thoda slow growth aur margin pressure se deal kar rahe hain. Unka EBIT margin 2024 mein sirf 4.7% tha aur 2025-2026 mein bhi pressure mein rehne ka chance hai. OEMs ka bhi EBITDA Q3 2025 mein 11% se kam hokar 8% se neeche aa gaya hai, kyunki volumes stable hain aur costs zyada.
Ancillaries Ka Kya Scene Hai?
Auto ancillary space mein margin stability ki umeed hai, par revenue growth toh 2W aur tractor volumes par depend karta hai. Thoda mixed performance ho sakta hai kyunki alag-alag companies pe commodity costs ka alag pressure hai. Global suppliers toh "stagflation" se lad rahe hain, matlab growth slow aur business model change karne ki zarurat hai. Indian ancillaries mein Sansera Engineering ka ROE 10.5% se 12.4% ke aas-paas hai aur Price-to-Book ratio 4.93 hai. Endurance Technologies ka ROE 14.6% better hai aur P/E ratio 38.8 se 49.66 tak hai. Endurance Technologies February 13, 2025 ko important moving averages ke neeche trade kar raha tha, jo volatility dikhata hai. Electrification ki wajah se competition aur badh raha hai.
OEMs Ki Taakat Aur Challenges
OEMs ko long-term drivers par bharosa hai jaise infrastructure aur policy support. FY26E mein Eicher Motors 2W sales mein mid-to-high single-digit growth expect kar raha hai, new models ki wajah se. Bajaj Auto 3W aur exports mein strong hai. Passenger vehicle (PV) sales bhi mid-single digits mein badh sakti hain, GST cuts aur naye models ke karan. Ashok Leyland ka domestic M&HCV segment February 2025 mein 7% gira tha, par LCV segment mein thoda growth tha aur total sales 2% badhi thi. P Pichhle saal (March 3, 2025 tak) Ashok Leyland ka stock 25.65% badha tha. CV volumes high single-digit mein aur tractor volumes mid-double-digit mein grow kar sakte hain FY26E mein.
Aise Hi Sab Kuch Acha Nahi Hai!
Kuch risks bhi hain. Global supply chain issues, tariffs, aur currency depreciation problems create kar sakte hain. OEMs ka profit kam ho raha hai aur suppliers price negotiations mein fasa hua hai. Future emission standards aur safety regulations se compliance costs badhenge, jisse entry-level vehicles expensive ho sakte hain. Electric vehicles (EVs) ek opportunity hai, par isme bahut investment aur technology change ki zarurat hai, aur consumers ko bhi time lagega adopt karne mein.kyunki prices zyada hai.
Aage Kya Ho Sakta Hai?
Analysts keh rahe hain ki FY2026 mein overall volume growth 6-8% ke beech mein ho sakti hai. Kuch experts toh 10% se zyada growth predict kar rahe hain. Kotak Mutual Fund PV growth 1-2% aur 2W growth 6-7% expect kar raha hai FY26 ke liye. Industry ab regulations ke liye taiyari kar rahi hai aur operations ko optimize kar rahi hai. 2026 mein.