Whalesbook
Bhai log, yeh jo duniya bhar ki badi auto companies hain na, woh America mein jo billion dollar ke naye factories aur production badhane wale the, woh abhi pause kar diya hai. Official reason toh yeh de rahe hain ki USMCA jaise trade deals mein uncertainty hai aur tariffs ka dar hai. But asli khabar yeh hai ki iske peeche kuch aur bade reasons hain jo investors ko dikh nahi rahe, jaise badhti labor costs aur consumer ki badalti pasand.
Pehla toh yeh trade wala angle. Companies keh rahi hain ki USMCA ka review hone wala hai, aur tariffs lag gaye toh business mushkil ho jayega. Jaise Toyota ne $10 billion paanch saal mein lagane ka plan kiya tha, woh bhi bole hain ki tariffs clear honge tab dekhenge. Hyundai ne bhi $26 billion tak ka commitment kiya hai 2028 tak, jisme unka target hai 80% local production ka, but yeh bhi trade ki ambiguity se affected hai. Volkswagen aur Nissan ke executives ne bhi trade policy aur production costs ko lekar chinta jatayi hai. Market bhi isko lekar kaafi cautious hai.
Lekin asli game toh andar se chal raha hai. Dekho, manufacturing ka kharcha bahut badh gaya hai. Jaise, Mexico mein car banane ka kharcha US ke compare mein $1,000 tak kam hai per vehicle, aur US ki companies ke liye toh yeh difference paanch guna tak hai agar domestic production se compare karein. Yeh cheez toh companies ko hamesha se pata thi, but ab jab investment ka time aaya hai toh yeh bade numbers matter kar rahe hain. Aur Nissan jaise companies, jinki financial health bhi thodi shaky lag rahi hai (negative P/E ratio -1.29), unke liye toh yeh aur bhi bada challenge hai.
Aur ek aur bada factor hai consumer ka taste badalna. Log electric vehicles (EVs) se thoda door ho rahe hain aur hybrids ki taraf zyada jhuk rahe hain. EVs ko adopt karne ki speed slow ho gayi hai, woh mehange bhi hain, aur hybrid cars fuel efficiency ke liye abhi bhi bahut popular hain. Is wajah se, analysts bol rahe hain ki 2026 tak US mein new car sales 15.8 se 16 million units ke aas paas hi rahegi. Affordability bhi ek bada issue bana hua hai.
Aur yeh tariffs ka jo 25% ka rate April 2025 se laga hua hai na, isne bhi industry ko billion dollars ka nuksan pahunchaya hai. Pehle toh companies ne price badhane ki bajaye khud absorb kiya, but ab yeh sustainable nahi raha. USMCA ka review 2026 mein hoga, jahan rules of origin aur tight ho sakte hain, jisase production costs aur badhenge. GM, Ford, Stellantis jaise companies ne bhi EV investments mein losses dekhe hain, isliye sabhi apni strategy re-evaluate kar rahi hain.
Industry ke projections ke hisab se, 2026 tak US mein around 10.04 million units aur Mexico mein 4.12 million units produce hongi. Toh overall, companies ko ab trade policy ke saath saath cost management aur consumer ki demand ko samajhna bahut zaroori hai. Jo companies yeh sab manage kar payengi, woh hi aage badhengi.