Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo, Apollo Tyres India ko hi apna growth engine bana raha hai. Ye log India mein expansion ke liye lagbhag 80% yani ₹3,500 Crore daal rahe hain.
Aur maza toh dekho, India mein Q4 mein sales ne record tod diya, revenue 14.3% badha aur EBITDA margins 14.6% tak pahunch gaye! Lekin ek bada 'but' hai. Natural rubber ka rate ekdum se bhag gaya hai. Pehle jo ₹200 per kg tha, woh ab ₹250 ho gaya hai! Is wajah se company ko ab India mein 6-8% aur Europe mein 2% se zyada price hike karna padega, jisse input costs ko control kiya ja sake. Company ka market cap around ₹25,000 Crore hai aur P/E ratio 18.26x chal raha hai. Sadly, pichle ek saal mein stock -20% se -24% tak gira bhi hai.
Aur Europe ka kya scene hai? Wahan pe Netherlands wala plant jo June 30 tak band ho jayega. Goal hai European operations ko zyada profitable banana. Europe mein EBITDA margins bhi kam thay, bas 14.6% pe. Is band karne mein lagbhag €43 million ka non-cash write-off aur €50 million cash cost lagega, jiska fayda H2 FY27 se dikhega.
Indian tyre industry FY26 mein 6-8% grow hone ka forecast hai, jabki Europe ka market inflation aur geopolitical issues ke chalte dheere-dheere, matlab 1-3% annual growth tak hi manage kar payega 2030 tak.
Competition ki baat karein toh Apollo Tyres ka P/E ratio 18.26x hai, jo JK Tyre (15.76x), CEAT (19.11x) aur MRF (~24.7x) ke aas-paas hi hai. Company ne apna debt bhi kaafi kam kiya hai, net debt ab EBITDA ka bas 0.4 times hai. But itna bada capex karne ke liye paisa manage karna bahut zaruri hai.
Ab sabse badi tension kya hai? Raw material, khaas kar natural rubber ka rate jo rukne ka naam hi nahi le raha. Middle East ki wajah se crude oil aur freight charges bhi volatile hain. Company kitna price badha paati hai customers se, ye dekhna hoga. Zyada price hike se sales bhi kam ho sakti hai. Aur competition toh hai hi, saath mein naye regulations bhi.
Par analyst log isko lekar zyada pareshan nahi hain. Kaafi log 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur target price ₹510 se ₹540 ke beech mein rakh rahe hain. Citi ne bhi ₹540 ka target diya hai, lekin commodity costs pe nazar rakhi hai. Kuch jagahon pe EBITDA forecasts kam kiye gaye hain margin pressure ko dekhte hue. Management confident hai ki sab manage ho jayega.