Whalesbook
RCF ne actually 85,000 metric tons fertilizer ka tender daala hai, jisme 50,000 tons NPK complex aur 35,000 tons ammonium sulphate hai. Ye sab May 31 tak aa jayega taaki June ki farming season mein kami na ho. Problem ye hai ki West Asia mein conflict ki wajah se global supply chain bigad gayi hai. Iska result dekho: February mein jo urea $508-$512 per ton mein mil raha tha, woh ab April mein $935-$959 tak pahunch gaya hai – matlab seedha double! Ye farmers ke liye bilkul achha signal nahi hai.
Is situation ko dekhte hue, sarkar bhi farming mein kuch changes laane ki try kar rahi hai. Wo ab ammonium sulphate ko urea ka alternative banane par zor de rahi hai. Iske liye isko subsidy list mein bhi daal diya gaya hai taaki zyada se zyada kisan isko use karein. Waise toh India local NPK fertilizers banata hai, par gas aur potash jaise raw materials toh aaj bhi import karne padte hain.
Ab RCF ki baat karein toh, ye badhti import prices company aur sarkar dono ke liye financial burden banengi. RCF ki market value lagbhag ₹7,200 crore hai, jabki competitor National Fertilizers Ltd. (NFL) ki ₹3,700 crore ke aas-paas hai. Stock performance bhi kuch khaas nahi hai; is saal ab tak RCF ka share -7.90% gira hai, jo Sensex ke -1.81% se kaafi neeche hai. Company ka P/E ratio 20s mein chal raha hai, jo sector average se thoda zyada hai, aur debt-to-equity ratio 0.65 hai. Kuch analysts toh 'Strong Sell' rating bhi de rahe hain.
India ka fertilizer import par itna nirbhar hona, aur West Asia mein geopolitical tensions RCF jaisi companies ke liye bade risks hain. Khass kar Strait of Hormuz jaise important shipping routes par problem aane se supply chain aur fragile ho jaati hai. Toh, ye high import costs agar control nahi hui, toh ye food prices badha sakti hain ya RCF par dabav bana sakti hain. Sarkar ne assure kiya hai ki Kharif season ke liye supply suficiente rahegi aur imports ko diversify karne par kaam chal raha hai.