Whalesbook
Geopolitical Tension se Badha Import ka Rona Dhona
Yaar, asli masala yeh hai ki duniya bhar mein jo tension chal raha hai na, uski wajah se India mein fertilizer ka production kam ho gaya hai, khas kar urea ka. Natural gas, jo urea banane ke liye bahut zaroori hai, uski supply kam ho gayi hai. Iske chalte, India ko fertilizer import karna pad raha hai. FY26 mein import 34% ho gaya hai, jo FY25 mein sirf 23% tha. Urea imports toh lagbhag double ho gaye hain, aur DAP (Diammonium Phosphate) bhi zyaada import karna pad raha hai.
Global Prices Ne Lagayi Aag, Subsidy Bill Hue Zoom!
Ab jab import badh raha hai aur supply kam hai, toh global prices toh badhenge hi. DAP ke prices toh nearly double ho gaye hain, aur urea bhi mehnga ho gaya hai. Sarkar kisaano ko support karne ke liye subsidy de rahi hai, aur jab import ka kharcha itna badh gaya hai toh subsidy ka bill bhi double ho jayega. Analysts keh rahe hain ki FY27 mein yeh bill ₹1.71 lakh crore ke current budget se kaafi zyada, matlab lagbhag ₹70,000 crore badh kar ₹2.41 lakh crore tak pahunch sakta hai. Ye FY26 ke revised estimate ₹1.86 lakh crore se bhi kaafi zyada hai. Pata hai, 1980 mein yeh bill sirf ₹505 crore tha, jo ab ₹2,25,220 crore (2022-23) tak pahunch gaya tha!
Structure Weaknesses aur Supply Chain ka Sankat
Hamara fertilizer sector bhi thoda vulnerable hai, especially LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) ke liye jo urea banane mein use hota hai. LNG prices global events se bahut volatile rehte hain, jisse production cost badh jaati hai. Plus, Strait of Hormuz jaisi jagahon se trade mein risk hai. Domestic production badhane ki koshish ho rahi hai, par demand poori nahi ho pa rahi, isliye import par nirbharata bani hui hai. FY24 mein toh humne 67% DAP aur 41% urea imports se manage kiya hai.
Sarkar Ka Support Jaari, Par Fiscal Concerns?
Sarkar keh rahi hai ki woh kisaano ko support karna jari rakhegi aur alag-alag sources se supply manage karegi. Experts ko lagta hai ki government extra subsidy funds bhi degi, jaisa pehle bhi diya hai. Lekin yeh badhta hua subsidy bill government ki fiscal management par sawaal utha raha hai, aur future mein food prices par bhi asar pad sakta hai. FY27 ka current allocation ₹1.71 lakh crore bilkul bhi kafi nahi lag raha.