Whalesbook
Ethanol ka 'Promise' aur 'Peril'
Dekho, India ne petrol mein ethanol mix karne ka target, woh bhi 20% tak, time se pehle hi achieve kar liya hai. Isse energy security toh badhi hi hai, aur crude oil imports bhi kam hue hain. Reports kehti hain ki ₹1.7 lakh crore ka forex bach gaya hai aur 289 lakh metric tonnes se zyada crude oil replace hua hai. India ab US aur Brazil jaisa bada ethanol producer ban gaya hai. Par is success story mein kuch badi gadbadiyaan hain. Program ka state-controlled structure aur uske negative economic aur environmental impacts ab dikhne lage hain. Energy independence ki yeh race fiscal risks aur agricultural markets ko bhi disturb kar rahi hai.
Crops ki shift aur Market mein gadbad
Ethanol banane ke liye alag-alag crops pe depend karne se problems aa rahi hain. Pehle sirf sugarcane use hota tha, par ab policy changes ki wajah se maize aur rice ka use badh gaya hai. Isse market mein imbalance aa gaya hai. FY2022 se FY2025 tak, maize production aur area kaafi badha hai kyunki uske liye better prices mil rahe hain. Is wajah se pulses aur oilseeds jaisi zaruri crops displace ho gayi hain, jo hamari food supply ke liye important hain. Economic Survey 2025-26 ne warn kiya hai ki is imbalance se edible oil imports badh sakte hain aur food prices bhi volatile ho sakti hain.
Paani ka strain aur Resources ki kami
Paani ka use toh ek bada issue hai hi. Kuch reports kehti hain ki sugarcane mein utna paani nahi lagta jitna sochte hain, par feedstock cultivation, especially rice ke liye, bohot zyada paani chahiye. Rice se ethanol banane mein lagbhag 10,790 liters paani per liter ethanol lagta hai, jo maize ya sugarcane se bohot zyada hai. Aur importantly, yeh paani mostly groundwater se aata hai, aur already paani ki kami wale areas mein yeh ek badi problem hai. Pehle ki agricultural policies, jaise irrigation ke liye subsidized electricity aur rice-wheat jaise water-intensive crops ke liye MSP, ne groundwater ka over-extraction encourage kiya hai. Studies batati hain ki in subsidies se 30% overproduction hoti hai aur groundwater levels bhi gir rahe hain, jisse kuch states desertification ki taraf jaa sakti hain.
Consumer pe cost aur Gaadiyon ka tension
Consumers bhi is ethanol blending change se affect ho rahe hain. Government ne April 2023 se E20 compatible gaadiyan mandatory kar di hain, par 2023 se pehle bani hui purani gaadiyan higher ethanol blends se problem kar sakti hain. Drivers kam fuel efficiency, engine wear aur higher maintenance expenses report kar rahe hain. Unki gaadiyon ki warranty aur insurance validity ko lekar bhi concerns hain. Ethanol mein petrol se kam energy hoti hai, isliye mileage kam milti hai. Iske liye retrofitting ya dual-fuel systems lagane padh sakte hain, jo har kisi ke liye affordable nahi hai.
Policy hurdles aur Fiscal risks
Program ka structure khud hi risky hai. India ke ethanol system mein bohot saare ministries aur departments hain jinke kaam overlap hote rehte hain. Prices, crops aur purchase volumes mostly government control karti hai, market signals se nahi, jisse distortions aur financial burden badhta hai. Brazil ke opposite, jahan price signals decide karte hain ki crop fuel ke liye use hoga ya food ke liye, India ka regulated system policy changes aur inefficiencies se bhara hua hai. Economic Survey ne food security par concern jatayi hai, aur World Bank study ne groundwater depletion ke risks bataye hain. US jaise deshon se bhi pressure hai, jo apne ethanol ke liye market access chahte hain. Agriculture, energy aur water ke beech ek clear, predictable framework na hone se long-term stability ko risk hai.
Aage ka Rasta: Market Signals chahiye
Jaise India E25 aur uske baad ke targets ki taraf badh raha hai, current policy framework ka thorough review zaroori hai. Experts ka kehna hai ki ek clear crop hierarchy aur market-based pricing ki taraf badhna sustainability aur efficiency ke liye crucial hai. Brazil ka flexible-fuel vehicles ka model consumers ke liye issues create kiye bina fuel policies manage karne mein help kar sakta hai. Agar ek predictable aur market-aligned structure nahi bana toh India apna paisa bohot limited aur potentially unsustainable results ke liye waste kar dega.