Whalesbook
Super El Niño ka threat aa gaya hai India pe!
India Meteorological Department (IMD) ne saaf keh diya hai ki 2026 ka Southwest Monsoon 'below-normal' rehne ka chances hain. Ye lagbhag 92% of LPA (Long Period Average) forecast kiya gaya hai, jo pichhle 26 saal mein sabse kam opening prediction mein se ek hai. Iska matlab hai baarish kam hogi, aur India ki kheti par bada asar padega.
El Niño ka India ki Baarish par asar
Ye Super El Niño India ke liye problem wala hai kyunki ye generally dry weather lata hai, aur Monsoon jo India ki 70% annual rainfall deta hai, wo kam ho jayega. Aur jab Monsoon kam hota hai toh crops pe bahut farak padta hai.
Economy par kya padega asar?
Is kam baarish ka sirf kheti par hi nahi, poori economy par impact padega. Food inflation jo abhi 4.7% hai, aur badh sakti hai. Kuch reports keh rahi hain ki CPI mein 0.4% tak ka impact ho sakta hai sirf rain-fed crops se. ICICI Bank aur ICRA jaisi firms 4.5% se 5% ke aas paas CPI inflation expect kar rahi hain FY27 ke liye, agar Monsoon stressed raha toh. Barclays bhi keh rahi hai ki April CPI 4.2% tak pahunch sakta hai. Agar sabse bura hua toh GDP growth mein 65 basis points tak ka reduction bhi ho sakta hai. Rice, sugar, edible oils ke futures pe bhi pressure aa raha hai global supply kam hone ki wajah se.
Bachav ke liye kya hai?
Lekin kuch achhi khabar bhi hai. Reservoir mein paani abhi 47% capacity par hai, jo historical average se zyada hai. Rice aur wheat ke buffer stocks bhi acche hain. Aur sabse badi baat, ab zyada log sirf kheti par depend nahi karte, income diversify ho gayi hai. Kuch reports ye bhi keh rahi hain ki Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive reh sakta hai, jo thoda balance dega.
Asli Risks aur Downsides
Lekin risk toh hai, 62% se 70% chances hain El Niño ke develop hone ke. Isse coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds jaise crops pe zyada impact padega jinke liye irrigation kam hai. Government ka subsidy burden bhi badh sakta hai, lagbhag ₹10,000 crore se ₹25,000 crore tak ka FY27 mein, agar fertilizer prices badhte rahe. Isse rural growth ruk sakti hai aur inflation control karna mushkil ho jayega.
Future Outlook
RBI bhi El Niño ko inflation ke liye ek 'upside risk' maan raha hai. IMF aur ADB growth projections 6.5% - 6.9% de rahe hain FY26/27 ke liye, lekin ye monsoon situation unke liye bhi ek warning sign hai. World Bank 4.9% inflation expect kar raha hai. Sabko Monsoon par nazar rakhni hogi.