Whalesbook
Kheti par mausam ka maar
Trade experts bol rahe hain ki is saal gehun ka production pichhle saal ke record se 5% se lekar 10% tak kam ho sakta hai. Ye toh govt ke pehle wale forecast se bilkul alag hai, jismein bumper crop ki umeed thi. Asli problem yeh hai ki harvest hone se kuch hi hafte pehle aisi baarish aur hailstorms aa gayi, jiske badde asar Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh aur Uttar Pradesh jaise bade growing regions mein dikh rahe hain.
Govt ke paas stocks ki kami nahi
Olam Agri India ke Nitin Gupta ne bataya ki crop pehle toh theek dikh raha tha, par harvest se pehle wale mausam ne yields ko kaafi gira diya. Lekin chinta wali baat yeh hai ki govt agency joh khareedti hai na gehun, usmein kami nahi hogi. Aur is baar govt ke paas grain reserves itne zyada hain ki lagbhag mandated level se 3 guna zyada hai, matlab domestic demand ke liye supply ki koi tension nahi hai.
Exports ko bhi boost
April ki shuruaat mein govt ke paas gehun ka stock 21.8 million tons tha, jo pichhle saal se 85% zyada hai aur 5 saal ka highest hai. Issi wajah se govt ne 2.5 million tons aur export karne ki permission de di hai, jisse total export quota ab 5 million tons ho gaya hai. Govt ka target 30.3 million tons khareedne ka hai, par abhi tak purchase thoda slow hai, isliye quality norms bhi thode loose kiye gaye hain. Traders ko lag raha hai ki actual purchase 26 million se 28 million tons ke beech mein ho sakti hai.