Whalesbook
Dekho, ye jo thali ka price stable dikh raha hai na, iske peeche ek bada twist hai. Kuch sabziyon aur daalon ke daam kam hue toh relief mila, par global market aur jo West Asia mein chal raha hai na, usne food basket par ekdum se inflation ka pressure badha diya hai.
February mein food inflation thoda badha tha (3.47%), matlab thali data sab nahi bata raha. March mein vegetarian thali ka cost toh flat raha, despite ki tamatar 33% mehenge hue aur edible oil bhi 6% upar gaya. Ye sab compensated hua pyaz (25% drop), aloo (13% drop), aur daal (6% drop) ke rates girne se. Non-veg thali bhi 1% sasti hui kyuki chicken 2% sasta tha. Lekin asli story ye hai ki West Asia conflict ki wajah se global edible oil prices ekdum se bhag gaye hain. Humare India mein 60% edible oil import hota hai, toh foreign prices aur 16-17% badhe freight charges ka seedha impact hamare gharon par padta hai.
Overall inflation (CPI) bhi February mein thoda badh kar 3.21% ho gaya tha. Aur March mein toh crude oil $100 per barrel cross kar gaya! Isse hamare import ka kharcha badh gaya aur rupee bhi gir kar ₹92.47 tak pahunch gaya. Iska seedha asar LPG cylinders par bhi hua, jinke daam 14% badh gaye. Edible oil prices bhi recently 6-14% badhe hain kyunki conflict ki wajah se supply kam hai aur biofuels ki demand bhi.
Ye jo thali ka stability dikh raha hai na, ye bilkul fragile hai. India 60% edible oil import karta hai, toh Middle East ke tensions se ye bahut vulnerable hai. High crude oil prices se edible oil aur LPG dono ka kharcha badh raha hai. FAO Food Price Index March mein badha tha, mostly energy costs ke karan. Vegetable oil prices toh monthly 5.1% aur yearly 13.2% badh gaye. Aur suno, global supply chain issues se agrochemicals bhi 20-25% mehenge ho sakte hain, jo future crops ko bhi affect karega. Toh ye jo bada hua energy aur edible oil ka price, plus higher freight charges, ye sab milkar ek bada risk hain jo food price stability ko uda sakte hain.
Pyaz ke daam shayad jaldi recover honge kyunki production kam hua hai. Par vegetable oil prices high hi rahne wale hain kyuki global situation uncertain hai. March 2025 data mein thali sasti hui thi, par ab situation different hai. 2025 ke achhe base effect khatam ho rahe hain aur global supply chain problems abhi solve nahi ho rahi, toh 2026 mein food inflation thoda badh sakta hai. Analysts ko lagta hai ki March inflation numbers mein Middle East tensions ka impact dikhega, especially fuel prices mein. Total price trend depend karega ki ye conflicts kitna chalta hai aur global markets par iska kya effect hota hai.