Whalesbook
Ab is export band ka asli asar kya hoga?
Dekho, badi companies ne export se hi acche paise kamaye the. Ab jab bahar maal bechna band ho gaya hai, toh yeh saara surplus (extra supply) India ke andar wale market mein aa jayega. Isse kya hoga, local prices gir jayengi aur companies ke profit margins par zabardast dabav aayega.
Especially Dwarikesh Sugar Industries jaisi companies, jinka kaafi revenue export se aata tha, unke liye toh yeh bada jhatka hai. Unka market cap lagbhag ₹1.8 billion hai aur P/E ratio ~9 chal raha hai. Waise hi Dhampur Sugar Mills (market cap ₹3.5 billion, P/E ~11) ke liye bhi export growth ruk gayi hai.
Brokerage firms bhi alert ho gayi hain. ICICI Securities ne toh kuch sugar stocks ke target price bhi kam kar diye hain, keh rahe hain ki margin risk badh gaya hai.
Aur India ka yeh move global peers se bilkul alag hai. Brazil jaise bade players toh abhi bhi maal bech rahe hain. Jabki India yahan restrict kar raha hai, doosre log global demand ka fayda utha rahe hain. Isse Indian companies ka global market mein position kamzor ho gaya hai, aur andar hi andar supply badhne se prices aur gir sakti hain.
Ab investors bhi soch rahe hain ki in companies ka valuation kya hoga. Kai stocks ke P/E ratios toh export growth aur ethanol blending ke government push ke hisab se hi chal rahe the. Bade player Balrampur Chini Mills (market cap ~₹6.5 billion, P/E ~14) ka valuation bhi adjust ho sakta hai.
Haalanki, pichle saal bhi export limits thein aur stocks gire the, par yeh poora ban ek alag hi level ka challenge hai. Haan, kuch exceptions hain, jaise EU aur US mein tariff rate quota ke andar exports aur advance authorisation wale shipments allowed hain, par yeh bahut kam quantity hai, bade bande ko cover nahi karegi.
Sabse bada risk yehi hai ki domestic prices lambe time tak low na rahein. Jo companies export se acche earnings par depend karti thi, unki toh mushkil badh jayegi. Agar export income zero ho gayi aur local prices utni uthi nahi, toh companies fas sakti hain. Aur agar local prices zyada hi gir gayi, toh inventory write-downs ka bhi danger hai. Government policy change kar de agar prices bahut badh gayin toh woh bhi uncertainty hai.
Overall, abhi sugar stocks par pressure rehne wala hai. Brokerages caution kar rahe hain. Long term mein toh ethanol blending program support de sakta hai, par abhi sugar sales ka immediate impact bahut hai.