Whalesbook
Dekho, yeh ₹20,000 Crore ka joint venture deal ekdum strategic move hai. Abhi kya hai na, global market mein gadbad aur shipping routes mein problems ki wajah se humein urea import karne par lagbhag double paisa dena pad raha hai. Pehle jo $490 per tonne mein milta tha, woh ab $935-959 per tonne tak ja raha hai. Isi mushkil ka solution nikalne ke liye yeh deal ki gayi hai.
Yeh JV dono countries ke beech 50:50 partnership mein hoga. Russia ki Uralchem company ₹10,000 Crore invest karegi ammonia plant ke liye, aur India ki taraf se Indian Potash (IP), Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers (RCF), aur National Fertilizers (NF) milkar urea unit ke liye ₹10,000 Crore lagayenge. Plan hai ki Russia ke Samara region mein yeh plant lagega, jo saal mein 2 million tonnes urea produce karega. Bas 2 saal mein yeh operational ho jana chahiye. Is sab ka reason hai duniya bhar mein chal rahi gadbad, jisne shipping routes ko affect kiya hai.
Abhi toh humein immediate needs ke liye $935-959 per tonne ya kabhi kabhi $1,000 se bhi upar dena pad raha hai. Socho, current tenders mein $1,136 tak ke bhi offers aa rahe hain. Is sab ke beech, yeh ₹20,000 Crore ki investment aane wale time mein supply ko stable karegi, jo abhi ki situation se kaafi better hoga. Compare karein toh pehle ki OMIFCO JV 1.65 million tonnes banati thi, ab yeh 2 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) produce karega. RCF ka market cap around ₹7,070 Crore aur NF ka ₹3,716 Crore hai, toh partners bhi kaafi bade hain.
Par haan, har deal mein kuch risks toh hote hain. Is JV ka success bhi geopolitical stability par depend karega. Agar kahi aur conflict hua toh construction mein der ho sakti hai. Plus, itne bade international projects mein cost overruns aur delays ka risk toh rehta hi hai. India ki domestic urea production capacity 28.4 million tonnes saal ki hai, phir bhi hum import par depend karte hain (lagbhag 10 million tonnes urea ka). Abhi import cost zyada hone ki wajah se government par subsidy ka bojh bhi badh raha hai. Partners mein se Indian Potash Limited (IPL) ka revenue FY24 mein 35.22% kam hua tha, haalanki profit thoda badha tha. Overall, is JV ko sanctions aur future regulations ko bhi handle karna padega.
Fertilizer sector hamari food security ke liye bahut important hai, isliye supply chain mein investment zaroori hai. Middle East se urea futures $795 per tonne chal rahe hain, jabki India ko lagbhag double daam dene pad rahe hain. Global level par Uralchem ki capacity 25 million tonnes hai, toh yeh 2 MTPA ka addition kafi bada hoga. Lekin yaad rakho, urea production mein natural gas ka kafi use hota hai, toh energy costs ka bhi pressure rehta hai. Russia ki JV ki success isi par depend karegi ki woh kitne competitive price par urea supply kar pati hai aur India ke agriculture par global events ka impact kam kar pati hai.