Whalesbook
Jabardast Costs aur Global Tension Ka Maara
Dekho, Middle East mein jo security issues chal rahe hain, uske karan fertilizer banane ke liye zaruri cheezein, jaise ammonia aur sulphur, unki prices 30% aur 21% tak badh gayi hain last quarter se. Aur toh aur, phosphoric acid bhi $1,360/t par hai. India toh apna 75% ammonia aur 53% sulphur import karta hai, toh yeh global situation seedha market ko affect kar rahi hai. Sulphur toh Ruwais se $600/t ho gaya hai, jo March se $70/t zyada hai. Ammonia bhi April 2026 ke liye $590/tonne ke aas paas pahunch gaya hai.
Govt ka Support aur Monsoon Ka Khauf
Achhi baat yeh hai ki Central Govt ne Kharif season ke liye farmers ko support karne ke liye subsidies 10% badha di hain, aur iske liye ₹41,500 crore approve kiye hain. Lekin, agar monsoon kamzor raha, jo Skymet bol raha hai ki El Niño ki wajah se average se 94% hi ho sakta hai, toh crop production aur fertilizer demand par bura asar padega. Yeh sab milkar food inflation ko bhi badha sakta hai.
Companies Ka Game Plan
Is situation mein, Coromandel International jaisi companies jo backward integrated hain aur unki supply chain strong hai, woh zyada safe hain. Coromandel ne toh NACL Industries mein 53% stake bhi liya hai, aur analysts isko 'BUY' bol rahe hain ₹2,617.00 ke target ke saath. UPL Limited apna global crop protection business demerge kar raha hai April 2026 tak, jisko analysts 'OUTPERFORM' rating de rahe hain ₹820.53 target ke saath, haalanki abhi 'Hold/Accumulate' hai. Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals toh 7.03% bhaga tha April 2026 mein, target ₹1,695.0 ke saath analysts ne 'BUY' kiya hai. Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals, jo urea pe zyada focus karta hai, usko bhi analysts ne ₹559.50 target dekar 'Buy' bola hai.
P/E ratios bhi alag alag hain: Chambal Fertilisers 7.63, Coromandel International 23.55, UPL 23.86, aur Deepak Fertilisers 14.19. Matlab sab companies ko market alag nazar se dekh raha hai. Overall, sector geopolitical risks, commodity prices, aur climate uncertainty ke beech mein hai. Government ki help hai, par stable global supply aur achhe monsoon par bahut kuch depend karta hai.