Whalesbook
Middle East Tension Ka Seedha Asar Kisaano Par!
Bhaiyo, jo Middle East mein tensions chal rahi hain na, uska seedha asar ab India ke farmers par padne wala hai. Wahan supply chain rukne ki wajah se khad (fertilizers) aur natural gas ke prices skyrocket ho gaye hain. Aur humari country toh import pe bohot depend karti hai, especially Gulf region se.
Strait of Hormuz jaise important shipping routes band hone ya affected hone se urea ke prices mahino mein lagbhag double ho gaye hain. Natural gas, jo urea banane ka main material hai, woh bhi mehnga ho gaya hai. Reports bata rahi hain ki humari urea aur phosphate ki 40% requirement toh Gulf se hi aati hai. Isliye koi bhi external problem humare kisaano ko seedha affect karti hai.
Sarkaar Ke Liye Badi Mushkil
Ab jab bahar se khad mehnga aayega toh Sarkaar ko zyada subsidy deni padegi. FY ending March tak jo subsidy bill tha woh approx ₹1.87 Lakh Crore tha. Lekin agle fiscal year (FY27) ke liye yeh bill 28% tak badh kar ₹2.2 Lakh Crore tak pahunch sakta hai, jo ki budget estimate se kaafi zyada hai. FY26 ke liye bhi revise estimate ₹1.86 Lakh Crore tha. Sarkaar farmers ko saste mein khad dene ki koshish kar rahi hai, jo food security ke liye zaroori hai, par isse public finance par bohot bada bojh pad raha hai.
Filhaal Kharif season ke liye khad ka stock toh theek hai, par prices high rehne se lagataar attention dena padega.
Food Security Par Risk
Agar khad mehange ho gaye ya supply mein dikkat aayi toh farmers kam khad istemaal karenge, jisse crop yield kam ho jayegi. Iska matlab hai ki sabzi, anaj sab kuch mehnga ho jayega aur inflation badhegi. India mein waise bhi urea ka istemaal bohot zyada hota hai. Domestic production badhane ki koshish ho rahi hai, par Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) aur Muriate of Potash (MOP) jaise nutrients ke liye hum ab bhi import par nirbhar hain. Worldwide bhi farmers ka profit kam ho raha hai kyunki khad ke daam fasal ke daam se zyada tezi se badh rahe hain.
Aage Kya?
Sarkaar alag-alag countries se import karne ke options dhoondh rahi hai aur domestic production badhane par bhi focus kar rahi hai. Kuch reforms jaise ki subsidy seedha farmers ke bank account mein bhejna bhi discuss ho raha hai. Par jab tak hum fertilizer aur uske raw material ke liye import par itna depend rahenge, tab tak hum global market aur political tensions ke liye vulnerable rahenge. Yeh crisis ek reminder hai ki humein fertilizer supply chain mein zyada self-reliant banna hoga.