Whalesbook
So, sunne mein aa raha hai ki mid-2026 tak El Niño aa sakta hai, jisse hamare monsoon par asar pad sakta hai aur kheti ko nuksan ho sakta hai. History dekho toh El Niño jab bhi aaya hai, agriculture GVA mein badi girawat aayi hai. Lekin, ab scene thoda change ho gaya hai.
Reports ke hisab se, El Niño ka India ki economy se connection ab kamzor ho raha hai. Pichle 7 El Niño episodes mein se sirf 2 baar hi aisa hua hai ki barish kam hone ke bawajood GVA gir gaya ho. Matlab, weather ka seedha impact ab pehle jaisa nahi raha.
Iski sabse badi wajah hai hamare gaon ki badhti hui aamdani. NABARD ki ek report ke mutabik, ab kheti se sirf 1/3rd (ek tihaai) income aati hai. Baaki 2/3rd income mazdoori (16%), alag-alag business (15%), sarkari aur private naukriyan (23%), aur pashupalan (12%) se aa rahi hai. Yeh diversification ek super shield ki tarah kaam karta hai, jisse khet mein nuksan ho bhi jaye toh logon ki jeb bhaari rehti hai.
Aur yeh badhti hui income rural demand ko bhi boost kar rahi hai. Jaise ki two-wheeler ki sales, jo gaon ki kharch karne ki capacity ka indicator hai. Pichle El Niño events ke dauran bhi yeh steady rahi, 2015-16 mein 3% badhi aur 2023-24 mein toh 13.3% ka zabardast jump dikhaya!
Phir aata hai gold loans ka factor. Sone ke badhte daam ne gaon aur chhote shehron ke logon ki financial security badha di hai. Gold ek tarah se security blanket jaisa hai, jo aamdani ya daam mein koi bhi shock hone par kaam aata hai. December 2025 tak, sabhi gold loans ka 68% rural aur semi-urban areas se aaya tha. UP, MP, Rajasthan jaise states mein toh gold loans mein saal-dar-saal achhi growth dikhi hai. Aur loan amount bhi late 2023 se late 2025 tak lagbhag double (1.8 times) ho gaya hai, matlab log ispe depend kar rahe hain.
Aur haan, sabse important, hamari kheti khud bhi kaafi mazboot sthiti mein hai. Rabi ki fasal bahut tagdi hone wali hai, jo pichle saal se 3.2% badi hone ki ummeed hai, aur prices bhi acche mil rahe hain. Pichle 2 saal se achhi barish aur ab yeh solid Rabi crop, El Niño se aane wale summer crop ke potential disruption ko sehne ke liye ek strong base dega.
So, jab tak 2026 ke end tak El Niño ka peak effect dikhega, tab tak summer crop par uska asar shayad utna bura na ho jitna log soch rahe hain. Economy aur kheti dono ready lag rahi hain!