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Bhai, mausam ki taraf se halki halki tension wali khabar aa rahi hai. India Meteorological Department (IMD) aur Skymet dono keh rahe hain ki is baar southwest monsoon normal se kam, 92% ke aas paas hi rahega. Aur upar se, strong El Niño ka bhi full chance hai, jismein Pacific Ocean ka paani garam ho jaata hai. History check karein toh 1901 se ab tak jab bhi El Niño aaya hai, usme se 16 baar India mein sukha padne ki situation bani hai. Isse na sirf paani ki kami hoti hai, balki kheti-baadi ko bhi bada nuksaan hota hai, aur historical data ke mutabik, GDP par 2-5% tak ka negative impact pad sakta hai, khaas kar baarish par nirbhar kheti par.
Lekin tension wali baat ye hai ki ab India pehle se zyada prepared hai. Purane drought years jaise 2014-15 aur 2015-16 (jab 12% aur 14% baarish kam hui thi) se ab situation kaafi better hai. Dryness ko tackle karne ke liye irrigation system bohot improve hua hai. Pahle sirf 45% khet irrigate hote the, ab 55.8% ho gaye hain, aur target hai ki 2025-26 tak 122.3 million hectares tak pahunch jayega. Science ne bhi kamaal kiya hai – 100 se zyada aise crop varieties develop ki gayi hain jo kam pani mein bhi ug sakti hain. Kuch rice seeds toh pani kam hone par bhi 10-30% zyada paddy yield de sakte hain! Overall, agriculture sector bhi kaafi resilient bana hai, aur pichhle kuch saalon mein 4-5% ka annual growth dikhaya hai.
Abhi bhi kuch sectors hain jo thode vulnerable hain. Jo kheti 55% area mein sirf baarish par chalti hai, woh ab bhi risky zone mein hai. Khaas kar pulses aur oilseeds, jo aise areas mein zyada ugte hain. In farmers ko MSP (Minimum Support Price) bhi theek se nahi milta aur global price fluctuations se bhi pareshan rehte hain. Isliye hi parliament committee ne kaha hai ki oilseeds aur pulses ka 100% MSP par procurement ho, kyuki hum toh apna 56% edible oil bhi bahar se mangate hain. Aur yeh jo drought-resistant seeds hain na, inka adoption bhi slow hai kyuki yeh mehange hain, farmers ko credit milna mushkil hai, aur unhe iski jaankari bhi kam hai.
Toh overall dekha jaaye toh FY2027 ke liye situation thodi mixed hai. Kamzor monsoon, El Niño, aur fertilizer supply chain ki problems milkar food prices, especially pulses aur oilseeds ke price ko badha sakte hain FY27 ke baad. Government ke paas cereal stocks hain toh unke prices control mein reh sakte hain. Is situation se deal karne ke liye targeted policy support bahut important hoga. Supreme Court ke directions par drought management ka proper manual bhi hai. Experts ka kehna hai ki ab sirf welfare schemes par nahi, balki productivity badhane, exports ko promote karne aur climate resilience par zyada focus karna chahiye. Agroforestry, water conservation jaise cheezon ko promote karna future ke liye bahut zaroori hai. India ka future sirf fasal ki quantity par nahi, balki stability aur aise climate shocks ko handle karne ki capacity par bhi depend karega.