Whalesbook
Q4 mein toh bhai Maja aa gaya!
Fiscal year khatam hote hote AWL Agri Business ne kamaal kar diya. Fourth quarter mein revenue ₹21,465 Crore tak pahunch gaya, jo pichhle saal se 17.7% zyada hai. Ye sab hua hai business segments mein 14% ka volume increase hone se, khaas kar edible oils mein toh 17% ka jump laga. Aur profit? Woh toh 54% bhaga aur pahunch gaya ₹292 Crore par! Stock bhi ₹205 ke aas paas chal raha hai, matlab apne 52-week range mein hi hai. Company ka market cap lagbhag ₹26,600 Crore ho gaya hai.
Lekin Aage Ka Raasta Thoda Kathin?
Q4 mein jo zabardast figures aaye hain, usme March mein hui thodi si price increase ka bhi haath hai, jisme geopolitical tensions ka role tha. Lekin CEO ne clear kaha hai ki FY27 ka Q1 shayad thoda mehnga padega. Packing aur chemicals ke daam badh sakte hain. Iska reason hai Iran conflict jaisi global tensions, kyunki India crude aur edible oils ke liye 80% se zyada import par depend karta hai. Isliye prices abhi se 7% tak badh chuki hain. Ab company dekhegi ki yeh badhti hui costs consumers par daal paati hai ya khud manage karti hai.
Aur toh aur, agar monsoon kamzor raha toh FY27 mein prices aur demand mein gadbad ho sakti hai. March mein jo sales badhi thi, woh mostly distributors aur wholesalers ne inventory bharne ke liye ki thi, asli consumer demand itni nahi thi.
Competitors Aur Market Ka Scene
Baki companies bhi kuch aisi hi khabar de rahi hain. Marico ne bhi Q4 mein 20% revenue growth dikhaya hai. Godrej Consumer Products bhi India mein double-digit sales growth expect kar rahi hai. FMCG sector ka P/E ratio bhi 6 saal ke low par aa gaya hai, lagbhag 38.8. AWL Agri Business ka P/E ratio 25.1 hai, jo Nifty FMCG index se kam hai, par ITC jaise peers se zyada.
Company apna oleochemicals complex aur food capacity badha rahi hai. E-commerce bhi 40% se zyada grow hua hai aur ab 15-25% business wahi se aa raha hai.
Analysts Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Analysts ka kehna hai ki company 'Outperform' karegi aur target price ₹282-₹312 tak de rahe hain. Lekin global uncertainties aur badhti hui costs inka growth target thoda mushkil bana sakti hain. Company ka ROE bhi 10.7% hai, matlab shareholder returns mein improvement ki gunjaish hai. AWL Agri Business har saal ₹600-₹700 Crore ka capex karne ka plan bana rahi hai aur distribution ko 1 million outlets tak pahunchana chahti hai FY27 tak.