Whalesbook
Bhai log, ideaForge Technology Limited ne FY25-26 mein financial turnaround dikhaya hai. Revenue ko ₹161.22 Cr se badha kar ₹226.13 Cr kar liya hai, aur gross margins bhi 33% se 58% tak pahunch gaye. Is sabke peeche sabse bada credit defense sector ko jaata hai, jiska contribution 31% se badh kar 69% ho gaya! Fourth quarter mein toh defence ka hissa 86% tak pahunch gaya tha.
Is revenue surge aur cost efficiencies ki wajah se company ne ₹27.12 Cr ka positive EBITDA bhi dikhaya, jo pichle saal ₹31.53 Cr ke loss se kaafi behtar hai. Aur haan, company ka order book bhi ₹314.2 Cr ka hai, jismein saal bhar mein ₹530 Cr ke naye orders jud gaye.
Lekin, yahan ek twist hai. Itna sab hone ke baad bhi, company ka operating cash flow negative raha, matlab ₹63.4 Cr cash bahar gaya. Ye sab working capital badhne ki wajah se hua hai, jismein inventory aur receivables ka paisa fans gaya hai. Balance sheet pe bhi total liabilities badhi hain, jabki equity thoda kam hui hai.
Ab brokers ki baat karte hain. Kai analysts ko stock mein abhi bhi dum nahi lag raha. Most of them ne 'Sell' rating di hai aur unke price targets current price se kaafi neeche hain. Stock ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio bhi negative hai, aur Return on Equity (ROE) aur Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) bhi negative hain, jo cash generation aur capital use ki chinta dikhate hain. Crisil Ratings ne bhi outlook ko 'Negative' kar diya hai.
Waise, Indian defense sector mein future mein kaafi growth hai aur ideaForge is market mein ek leading player hai, 50% share ke saath. Analysts ko bhi aage 49% CAGR se revenue growth ki umeed hai. Lekin jab tak company apne order book ko efficiently revenue mein convert nahi karti, working capital manage nahi karti, aur ye negative financial metrics theek nahi hote, investors ka confidence waapas aana mushkil hai.