Whalesbook
Toh bhai, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) ne Q4 FY26 ke results toh de diye hain, aur results mein thoda mila-jula asar dikh raha hai. Company ka revenue 1.8% badh kar ₹13,940 crore ho gaya hai, aur consolidated net profit bhi 5.5% upar jaa kar ₹4,196 crore pahunch gaya. Lekin asli tension wali baat yeh hai ki EBITDA margin 237 basis points gir kar 36.3% par aa gaya hai. Is quarter mein sequential improvement acchi rahi, matlab pichhle quarter se profit double se zyada aur revenue 81% se upar gaya. Par jab year-on-year dekha toh EBITDA 4.5% gir gaya hai. Is margin compression ka reason raw material costs ka badhna lag raha hai. Isi wajah se results aane ke baad stock mein lagbhag 5% ki girawat bhi dekhi gayi.
Ab aate hain brokers ki rai par. Nirmal Bang toh abhi bhi bullish hain, unhone 'Buy' rating rakhi hai aur target price ko badha kar ₹5,432 kar diya hai. Yeh target stock ko uske projected March 2028 earnings ke 31 times par value karta hai. Agar current valuation dekho toh HAL ka stock pichhle 12 mahine mein roughly 32-36x P/E par trade kar raha hai, jo ki pehle ke comparison mein kaafi zyada hai. Haalanki, agar defence sector ki doosri companies jaise Bharat Dynamics (BDL) jo 85x earnings par hai, ya Bharat Electronics (BEL) jo 51x par hai, unse compare karein toh HAL thoda kam expensive lagta hai. Lekin phir bhi, current 34x P/E ko kuch analysts stretched maan rahe hain, especially jab PEG ratio 3.74 hai, jo batata hai ki valuation future growth par zyada depend karta hai.
Ek acchi baat yeh hai ki HAL ke paas March 2026 tak ₹2.54 lakh crore ka order backlog hai, matlab aane wale 7-8 saal tak revenue ki koi tension nahi hai. Bade orders mein 97 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk1A ka order hai jismein ₹62,400 crore ka deal hai. GE aur Rolls-Royce ke saath bhi deals chal rahi hain local manufacturing badhane ke liye. Lekin analysts ko execution speed aur margin decline ki chinta hai. Nomura ne 'Buy' rating dekar target ₹5,954 diya hai, woh order book ko positive maan rahe hain. Wahi, Goldman Sachs ne 'Neutral' rating rakhi hai ₹5,225 ke target ke saath, aur woh execution aur margin ki worries par focus kar rahe hain.
India ka defence sector waise bhi 'Make in India' initiative aur bade budget ki wajah se grow kar raha hai. FY27 ke liye defense budget ₹7.85 lakh crore hai, jisme capital spending 22% badhai gayi hai. HAL jaise PSU iska fayda uthane ke liye acchi position mein hain. Lekin ab private players jaise Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) bhi aa rahe hain, jo competition badha rahe hain.
Kuch underlying risks bhi hain jin par dhyan dena chahiye. Jaise ki pichhle quarter se working capital days 146 se badh kar 279 ho gaye hain. Yeh thoda cash flow par pressure dikha sakta hai. Aur haan, order book toh acchi hai, par complex projects ko time par execute karna aur usse steady profit banana ek challenge ho sakta hai.
Overall, analysts ka view cautiously optimistic hai, sabhi 'Moderate Buy' rating de rahe hain. Investors ab wait kar rahe hain ki management kaise operational efficiency badhata hai, costs control karta hai, aur apne bade order book ko time par deliver karta hai. Defence modernization mein HAL ka role important hai, lekin execution aur margin pressure par nazar rakhni hogi.