Defence Sector Mein Kaisa Hai Scene?
Dekho, HAL aur BEL ke share toh bhaage hi jaa rahe hain! Iske peeche ka sabse bada reason hai unka bada order book aur government ka defence modernization par zor. HAL toh abhi ₹4,226.10 ke aas paas trade ho raha hai, jiska market cap ₹2.82 trillion hai. BEL bhi kaafi strong dikh raha hai. Inka Relative Strength Index (RSI) bhi 60 ke aas paas hai, jo overall Nifty Defence Index ke average RSI se kaafi upar hai (jo 50 se neeche hai).
Ye sab kyun ho raha hai? Kyunki government ne defence ke liye record ₹7.85 lakh crore approve kiye hain budget mein! Capital expenditure bhi badha kar ₹2.19 lakh crore kar diya gaya hai. Aur HAL toh FY24-25 mein ₹1.51 lakh crore ka production kar chuka hai, jo ek all-time high hai. 'Aatmanirbhar Bharat' ki wajah se defence ab sirf kharcha nahi, balki growth engine ban gaya hai.
Shipbuilding: Abhi Lag Rahe Hain Paisa?
Ab baat karte hain shipbuilders ki, jaise CSL, MDL, aur GRSE. Inka scene thoda alag hai. Recovery dikh toh rahi hai, par yeh sab government ke support par depend karta hai. Government ne maritime development ke liye bhi kamaal ki schemes laayi hain, jaise ₹70,000 crore ka package aur 15-25% tak ki subsidies. Isi wajah se CSL ko CMA CGM se ~$300 million ka order mil gaya! Target hai ki 2030 tak top-10 shipbuilding nation ban jayein.
Par Risk Kya Hai?
Par haan, sab kuch itna smooth nahi hai. Kuch cheezein hain jin par dhyan dena zaroori hai. Jaise Bharat Forge ka P/E ratio kaafi high chal raha hai, 60s-70s mein, jabki unka profit growth sirf 7.05% aur revenue growth 12.24% tha pichhle teen saal mein. Ye thoda risky lag raha hai.
Shipbuilding mein bhi, GRSE ne toh pichhle saal 100%+ ka return diya hai, par MDL ka return sirf 8.20% tha. Yahan bhi dependency zyada hai government policies aur bade foreign orders par. Agar yeh nahi mile toh growth ruk sakti hai. CSL ka Return on Equity bhi kam hai, 12.8%, aur sales growth bhi pichhle paanch saal mein 5.76% rahi. GRSE ka P/E 40.6 aur MDL ka 39.52 hai. Matlab, growth toh hai par reliance kaafi zyada hai.
Aage Kya?
Toh overall, defence sector mein future toh achha dikh raha hai, government ka support mil raha hai. HAL aur BEL jaise companies strong hain. Shipbuilders ko thoda wait karna padega aur government schemes ka fayda uthana padega. Sector mein polarization rahega, matlab kuch upar jayenge, kuch waise hi rahenge.