Indian telecom operators anticipate single-digit revenue growth for the June quarter, supported by steady subscriber additions. While performance is steady, investors are looking toward potential tariff hikes of 10-20% projected for the second half of the fiscal year.
What Happened
Indian telecom companies are expected to report modest revenue growth for the quarter ending June 2026. Industry estimates suggest this single-digit sequential growth is driven by a steady influx of new subscribers and a consistent migration of customers toward more expensive 4G and 5G data plans. The June quarter also benefits from a calendar quirk, as the additional day provides a minor boost to overall figures compared to shorter quarters.
The Tariff Hike Outlook
While revenue is growing, the industry is largely focused on the timing and scale of potential price increases. Most market analysts expect telecom companies to raise tariffs in the second half of the current fiscal year. Projections from major financial institutions vary, with forecasts ranging from a 10% increase to as much as a 20% hike for 4G and 5G plans. These anticipated changes are seen as a critical step for companies to improve their profit margins after a period of stable, but slow, revenue expansion.
Subscriber Trends and ARPU
Subscriber growth remains a key performance indicator. Bharti Airtel is expected to add approximately 3.5 million net users, while Vodafone Idea is projected to add roughly 500,000 subscribers. This user growth, combined with the move toward higher-value products, is expected to lift the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). ARPU is a vital metric that measures how much revenue a company earns from each customer on average. Projections indicate a year-on-year increase in ARPU of about 5% for the sector.
Financial Context for Key Players
Financial forecasts point to continued expansion for the major players. For Bharti Airtel, the India mobile business revenue is projected to see year-on-year growth, with strong support coming from non-mobile segments such as home broadband and enterprise services. Vodafone Idea is also expected to see a rise in ARPU, which is crucial for its efforts to manage its balance sheet. However, analysts note that the current lack of tariff adjustments has led to a slight cooling in core mobile business earnings growth for Airtel.
What Investors Should Track
The most important monitorable for investors in the coming months will be the official announcement of tariff adjustments. Beyond the timing of these hikes, investors may track whether the increase in data prices leads to customer churn—where users switch to lower-priced plans or move to competitors. Additionally, the ability of companies to maintain steady subscriber growth after any price revision will be essential to watch, as this will determine the true impact on long-term profitability and cash flow.