Whalesbook
India's Department of Telecommunications has directed telecom companies and subsea cable operators to conduct thorough risk assessments and create contingency plans. This move comes amid rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which directly threaten the undersea data cables essential for India's digital economy and growth goals.
Strait of Hormuz: A Critical, Vulnerable Data Route
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route, handles about a third of India's data traffic to the US and Europe. Threats from Iran are increasing worries about the subsea cables passing through this sensitive area. While alternative routes via Singapore exist, they cannot handle the full data volume and would incur much higher costs, especially as major tech companies already use significant capacity. Experts predict that rerouting would cause slower speeds and delays, affecting key digital services. In February 2024, a ship sinking in the Red Sea damaged the AAE-1, EIG, and SEACOM cables, disrupting 25% of traffic between Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The problem is worsened by limited global repair resources; fixing cable faults now takes 40 days or more on average.
India's Digital Ambitions at Risk
India's goal to become a global digital hub and a $270 billion data center leader is challenged by these subsea cable weaknesses. Projects like Meta's Waterworth and Google's Blue-Raman, designed to boost India's subsea connections, could be significantly delayed. Relying on a few undersea cables landing at specific spots, like Versova beach near Mumbai, creates a major strategic risk. Although India has many cable systems landing in Mumbai and Chennai, they are clustered and vulnerable. The absence of domestic cable repair ships and dependence on foreign contractors, who face 3-5 month delays for approvals, adds to these risks. Meta has already paused work on sections of the 2Africa system, which connects the Persian Gulf, Pakistan, and India, due to security worries.
Underlying Risks: Limited Resilience in Cable Infrastructure
Despite large investments, the subsea infrastructure sector has structural weaknesses. Accidents, often from fishing vessels or anchors, cause most cable faults globally (about 70%). However, rising geopolitical tensions add the risk of deliberate sabotage. Events in the Baltic Sea and near Taiwan in recent years show how vulnerable these cables are to state-backed attacks using hard-to-trace 'grey zone' tactics. The Strait of Hormuz is shallow in places (around 200 feet), making cables easier to access. Concentrating landing stations in limited areas like Mumbai creates a significant risk of a single point of failure. Tech giants are investing in new cables, but older ones could become outdated. The industry averages 150-200 cable faults annually; a coordinated disruption could strain repair capacity, leading to outages lasting weeks or months. India's regulator, TRAI, has noted the country needs a tenfold increase in subsea cable infrastructure, highlighting a serious gap in capacity and resilience.
Government and Industry Response
In response to these escalating threats, India's Department of Telecommunications is working with industry players to develop contingency plans. The sector is urging the government to use diplomacy with Iran to ease tensions. Despite the risks, major investments continue in India's subsea cable and data center industries. Companies are actively seeking diversified routes and stronger network resilience. Initiatives like Google's America-India Connect aim to create new subsea cable paths, strengthening India's connections and its role as a major international data hub, helping to reduce risks from vulnerable chokepoints.