US-based prediction market Kalshi has officially restricted Indian users from its platform, citing compliance requirements. This follows the enforcement of India's Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025, which came into effect on May 1, 2026, and categorizes prediction markets as illegal money games.
What Happened
US-based prediction market platform Kalshi has officially added India to its list of restricted jurisdictions, preventing users located in or domiciled in the country from accessing its event contracts. The updated member agreement, effective June 17, 2026, formalizes the block after weeks of inaccessibility. The platform’s website had been unreachable for many users in India since late May, aligning with broader government efforts to curb offshore prediction and betting services.
The Regulatory Framework
The restriction follows the implementation of the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act, 2025, which came into force on May 1, 2026. This legislation establishes a comprehensive legal framework that classifies online games involving monetary stakes—including prediction markets—as prohibited activities. Under the new rules, the government has the authority to issue blocking orders against platforms, advertisements, and financial transactions facilitating such activities, regardless of whether the service is operated from offshore jurisdictions.
Why This Matters for the Digital Ecosystem
This development is part of an intensified regulatory push by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) to enforce compliance within the online gaming and fintech sectors. The government has signaled that enforcement will extend beyond simple website blocking. Earlier advisories from MeitY to Virtual Private Network (VPN) providers warned that enabling access to blocked platforms could lead to legal consequences.
Regulators have also indicated that financial channels and digital wallets used to participate in these prohibited activities will face closer scrutiny. For platforms operating in the digital and gaming space, the message is clear: extra-territorial jurisdiction allows Indian authorities to pursue enforcement against foreign entities that offer services to Indian users, even if the primary operations are based abroad.
Enforcement Realities
The government has acknowledged that enforcement remains a challenge due to the use of mirror websites and VPNs by users to bypass restrictions. However, the shift toward blocking specific payment channels and warning intermediaries marks a significant change in the operating environment. This approach increases the compliance burden for any digital platform that allows Indian users to engage in financial transactions involving speculation or betting.
What Investors May Monitor
While Kalshi is a private entity and not a listed company on Indian stock exchanges, the regulatory crackdown provides a lens into the government's approach toward the broader gaming and fintech sector. Investors in this space may monitor the following trends:
- Compliance Costs: Increased regulatory pressure may force companies to implement stricter KYC and geo-blocking measures, potentially impacting user acquisition costs.
- Payment Gateway Oversight: Continued government scrutiny on payment processors and digital wallets handling transactions for offshore platforms could affect how digital services receive payments.
- Regulatory Consistency: The enforcement strategy under the PROG Act 2025 will be key to understanding how the government distinguishes between permissible social gaming, e-sports, and prohibited money games in the coming months.