JM Financial forecasts Blinkit will significantly outperform Swiggy’s Instamart in the June 2026 quarter, driven by stronger order growth and better cost management. The report highlights a growing divergence in the quick commerce sector as Blinkit expands its network while Swiggy prioritizes profitability over rapid scale.
What Happened
In a recent analysis of the Indian quick commerce sector for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027 (Q1FY27), brokerage firm JM Financial reported a widening gap between the two major players, Blinkit—owned by Eternal Ltd—and Swiggy’s Instamart. The report suggests that Blinkit is currently outpacing Swiggy in terms of order growth, while the two companies are following distinct strategic paths to reach profitability.
The Growth Divergence
The brokerage projects Blinkit’s Net Order Value (NOV) to increase by 17.7% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 16,900 crore. This marks an acceleration from the 8.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Analysts attribute this performance to seasonal demand, the impact of the Indian Premier League (IPL), and the company’s aggressive expansion of its dark store network.
In contrast, Swiggy is taking a more cautious approach with Instamart. JM Financial estimates Instamart’s NOV growth will reach only 5.2% quarter-on-quarter. The data suggests that Swiggy is prioritizing profitability by reducing loss-making orders, a strategy that limits rapid expansion but aims to stabilize the business model.
Efficiency And Operating Leverage
A key focus of the report is how these companies manage their fixed costs. For Blinkit, the brokerage notes the benefits of 'operating leverage.' This simply means that as the company adds more orders, its revenue is growing faster than its fixed expenses, such as warehouse rent and staff salaries. This efficiency is expected to help Blinkit's adjusted EBITDA (a measure of operational profit) rise to Rs 125 crore from Rs 37 crore.
Conversely, the report indicates that Swiggy’s Instamart continues to face margin pressure. While Swiggy is working to make its contribution margins marginally positive, adjusted EBITDA losses are projected to remain high at Rs 760 crore. The brokerage highlights that Swiggy’s path to breaking even is more challenging due to high fixed costs and a focus on limiting growth to improve margins.
Food Delivery Resilience
Beyond quick commerce, the report also examined the core food delivery segments. Eternal Ltd’s food delivery business is expected to show steady growth with an anticipated 19.2% year-on-year increase in gross order value. JM Financial believes this segment's cash flow is supporting the aggressive investments being made into the Blinkit expansion. Meanwhile, Swiggy’s food delivery margins are expected to dip slightly to 3%, down from 3.3%, due to annual salary revisions and higher delivery costs.
What Investors Should Track
The most important monitorable for investors is the execution of these different strategies. For Eternal Ltd, the key will be to see if Blinkit can maintain its rapid growth without hitting operational bottlenecks or excessive cost increases. For Swiggy, investors will watch whether the strategy of prioritizing profitability over volume can actually narrow the losses and reach a sustainable breakeven point. Market observers will also monitor if the competitive intensity in the quick commerce sector impacts the pricing power and margins for both players in the coming quarters.