Apple is likely to see its first annual decline in iPhone unit sales in India in 2026, driven by high pricing on the new 'iPhone Duo' and existing models. While the company aims for higher revenue per device, the significant price difference compared to global markets is raising concerns among retailers about personal imports and grey-market activity.
Apple may be heading for a rare setback in the Indian market. Market research firms IDC India and Counterpoint Research are projecting a low single-digit decline in iPhone unit sales for 2026. If this happens, it would mark the company's first annual drop in volume within the country, highlighting the impact of its current pricing strategy on consumer demand.
Despite the expected fall in the number of phones sold, Apple is still positioned to see growth in sales by value. Analysts estimate that revenue may rise by 6% to 7% for the year. This strategy suggests the company is moving toward higher-value products, prioritising the price per device over the total number of units sold. However, this shift comes with notable risks to its long-term market reach.
The price for the new 'iPhone Duo' in India ranges between ₹2,99,900 and ₹4,49,900, which is significantly higher than its starting price of approximately $1,999 in the United States. This difference is largely driven by a combination of factors, including a 17% import duty, 18% goods and services tax (GST), and currency fluctuations. Together, these elements create a net pricing impact of about 40%, making Indian prices among the highest globally. Furthermore, older iPhone models have also seen sharp price increases of 20% to 29% in the domestic market.
This wide gap between Indian and international prices has created a difficult situation for local retailers. Industry bodies, including the All India Mobile Retailers Association, have raised concerns that premium customers may choose to buy their devices in markets like Dubai, Hong Kong, or the US during travel. This shift risks redirecting sales toward personal imports and the grey market, which reduces business for authorised local retailers and lowers tax collections for the government.
Beyond market pricing, the company also faces regulatory pressure. Apple is currently required to provide India-specific financial data to the Competition Commission of India (CCI) as part of an ongoing antitrust investigation regarding its App Store practices. If the regulator finds that the company has misused its market position, it could result in significant financial penalties based on global turnover.
For the Indian market, the key monitorable remains whether this pricing strategy will successfully boost revenue without causing a long-term erosion of the brand's user base. Investors will likely track the next quarterly performance to see if the decline in volume is offset by the expected growth in value and how the management addresses the growing price gap concerns.