Whalesbook
Focus Shifts to Product Variety, Not Just Speed
The quick commerce sector is undergoing a major strategic shift, moving away from rapidly expanding dark stores towards focusing on product variety and deeper category selection. This change is driven by the understanding that while speed is important, growth and profitability depend on increasing what customers buy and getting them to return. Companies are now prioritizing more products (SKUs) and broader non-grocery options, showing the industry is maturing, where efficiency and customer value are key.
More Than Groceries: Expanding Product Range
Leading players show this shift. Swiggy Instamart, for example, has reported a large increase in non-grocery orders, which now make up 32 percent of its total order value, up from 26 percent last quarter. This move into electronics, home goods, and toys shows an aim to capture more consumer spending outside of groceries. While competitors like Blinkit and Swiggy Instamart haven't shared exact SKU numbers, Zepto is estimated to offer nearly 40,000 SKUs. Blinkit is reportedly exploring niche product additions, while Instamart highlights "assortment expansion" as a key growth driver. The goal: more selection should increase average order values and build stronger customer loyalty, making these platforms go-to shopping spots.
Market Growth and Financial Health
The quick commerce market is expected to grow significantly, with global valuations projected to rise from $122.57 billion in 2025 to $1,361.39 billion by 2035, at an annual growth rate of 28.1%. In India, the sector's Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) is expected to grow from about $4 billion to over $25 billion by 2030. This expansion is happening amid significant investment. Zomato (Eternal), Blinkit's parent company, has a market value of ₹225,017.23 crore as of March 30, 2026. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is very high at 973.81, showing investors have high expectations. In contrast, Swiggy became a decacorn (a company valued at $10 billion or more) after a recent funding round. However, the financial picture is complex. While Blinkit has shown strong growth, reporting 140% year-on-year Gross Order Value (GOV) growth and a quarterly improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin in Q1 FY26, its profitability is still being watched closely. Analysts have mixed views: BofA Securities upgraded Zomato to 'Buy' with a target of ₹350, citing Blinkit's progress and expected margin gains. Meanwhile, HDFC Securities started coverage with a 'Reduce' rating and a target of ₹235, citing difficulties in making quick commerce profitable and the risk of the market becoming too crowded.
Key Challenges: Complexity and Rising Costs
Even with the shift to more products, the quick commerce sector faces major challenges. Offering more products requires more advanced inventory management, bigger warehouses, and more working capital, making operations much more complex. Global tensions, like the conflict in West Asia, are affecting supply chains. This means higher packaging costs, shipping delays, and disruptions for platforms needing frequent restocking. Concerns also remain about fuel price changes and diesel for dark store generators, which are vital for keeping operations running smoothly. Uncertainty over regulations is a major worry, especially India's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rules. Regulators are examining if dark stores act as allowed marketplaces or banned retail businesses that hold inventory. This distinction could greatly impact foreign investment. In the past, heavy investment and competition have caused large drops in company values. For example, Swiggy’s value fell from $10.7 billion to $5.5 billion between early 2022 and mid-2023. Zomato also saw its market value fall after its IPO. These factors suggest that reaching lasting profitability, even with more products, is very challenging.
Looking Ahead: The Push for Efficient Growth
Looking ahead, the quick commerce industry aims for both efficient operations and growth. Zomato plans to increase Blinkit's store count to 3,000. It aims for better margins as the business moves toward owning more inventory, possibly reaching steady margins of 5-6% of net order value (NOV). Analysts expect market leaders to be those with strong execution, giving an edge to platforms with better operational efficiency. The sector's future will depend on balancing wider product offerings with cost control, navigating regulations, and delivering steady profits in a tough market.