India's Quick Commerce: Profitability Splits Top Players

India's consumer tech market is seeing a clear divide, especially in quick commerce. Recent Q4 FY26 results show Eternal Ltd.'s Blinkit has reached profitability, a milestone Swiggy's Instamart has yet to achieve, continuing to absorb significant capital. This difference in reaching profit, rather than just growth, is now key for investor interest and market standing.

Blinkit Achieves Profitability, Instamart Still Logs Major Losses

Eternal Ltd.'s Blinkit reported an adjusted EBITDA profit of Rs 37 crore for Q4 FY26, a significant turnaround from a Rs 178 crore loss the previous year. This was alongside a 95% year-on-year rise in quick commerce net order value to Rs 14,386 crore. This financial recovery suggests Blinkit may be nearing a turning point, showing that scale can lead to earnings in quick commerce. Eternal's (Zomato's) stock showed cautious optimism, trading around ₹243.6 on May 15, 2026.

Meanwhile, Swiggy's Instamart continues to report substantial losses, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of Rs 858 crore in Q4 FY26, slightly up from the Rs 840 crore loss the prior quarter. Despite improvements in its contribution margin to negative 1.8%, the total loss remains a concern. Instamart's gross order value grew 68.8% to Rs 7,881 crore, and net order value rose 60.3% to Rs 5,675 crore. This highlights the high cost of Swiggy's quick commerce expansion and the ongoing difficulty in turning growth into profit. Swiggy's shares dropped 7% after its Q4 results, trading around Rs 261.20.

Food Delivery Strong, But Market Growth Continues

Despite the quick commerce gap, both companies saw stability and growth in their core food delivery operations. Eternal's food delivery net order value increased 18.8% year-on-year to Rs 9,757 crore, with a better adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.5%. Swiggy's food delivery gross order value jumped 22.6% to Rs 9,005 crore, with its adjusted EBITDA margin at 3.3%. Both management teams are focusing on keeping customers and increasing order frequency rather than aggressive, discount-driven growth, acknowledging affordability as important.

India's e-commerce sector is expected to grow strongly, potentially reaching Rs 19.7 trillion ($225.9 billion) in 2026. Quick commerce specifically has seen rapid growth, valued at an estimated $3.49 billion in 2025 and projected to reach $4.35 billion by 2030. This growth is fueled by increasing urbanization, smartphone use, and demand for fast deliveries, supported by rising incomes.

Competitively, Zomato (Eternal) holds a strong position in quick commerce with Blinkit having a 46% market share as of Q1 FY25. Swiggy Instamart holds about 25-27% of quick commerce GMV. In food delivery, Zomato leads with 58% market share, while Swiggy has 42%. Zomato's acquisition of Blinkit in June 2022 for approximately ₹4,447 crore has been crucial for its growth.

Key Challenges for Swiggy and Eternal

For Swiggy, the ongoing large losses in quick commerce are a major concern. While contribution margins are improving, the total loss of Rs 858 crore in Q4 FY26 continues to impact overall profitability and requires steady capital. Swiggy's strategy of focusing on differentiation rather than aggressive market share in quick commerce might be a defensive move, but it raises questions about how quickly it can reach profitability. Swiggy's total FY26 losses rose to Rs 4,154 crore, largely due to Instamart. Management aims for Instamart's contribution margin to break even by Q1 FY27.

Eternal (Zomato) faces risks despite Blinkit's profitability. The market is highly competitive, with players like Zepto also vying for market share. Blinkit's goal of achieving $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA by FY29 is ambitious, and maintaining profitability amid changing consumer needs and potential price wars will be challenging. Blinkit's integration is a significant part of Zomato's valuation, making its sustained performance critical. Zomato's P/E ratio stood at 377.63 as of April 2026, indicating high investor expectations.

Analyst Views and Future Projections

Analyst sentiment highlights this divergence. Firms like Anand Rathi and Motilal Oswal maintain 'Buy' ratings on Eternal (Zomato), citing Blinkit's market position and customer retention, with medium-term margin expectations of 5-6%. For Swiggy, Nomura and Jefferies maintain 'Buy' ratings but have lowered target prices, stressing the need for Swiggy to clarify its execution plan for quick commerce profitability. Swiggy's management has reconfirmed its target of INR 1 trillion GOV in Instamart with a 3-4% adjusted EBITDA margin over the medium term. The differing paths in quick commerce profitability will likely remain a key focus for investors.