Market expert Rahul Ghose expects the Nifty to consolidate between 24,600 and 24,800 while favoring Bank Nifty and real estate for potential outperformance. Investors are advised caution on the IT sector due to its current underperformance, while crude oil is viewed as a sell-on-rally opportunity.
Market analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged, has shared his outlook on the Indian markets as of July 13, 2026. His analysis points toward a period of consolidation for the Nifty 50, even as specific sectors like banking and real estate show signs of underlying strength.
Nifty and Bank Nifty Divergence
The benchmark Nifty index has been moving without a clear trend for several weeks. According to Ghose, the index is likely to consolidate before any potential move toward the 24,600 to 24,800 range. For the index to show a sustained upward trend, it needs to close firmly above the 200-day exponential moving average, currently near 24,400. In the current market conditions, reaching the 25,000 level within July appears to be a challenge.
In contrast, the Bank Nifty index is showing more stability. It has maintained its position above the 200-day exponential moving average and is currently trading within an upward-sloping channel. A successful breakout from this channel could drive the index toward the 58,700 to 58,800 range, with a possible path toward 60,000. This indicates that banking stocks may be better positioned for growth compared to the broader index.
Real Estate and Midcap Potential
The real estate sector is standing out due to breakout patterns in major stocks like Godrej Properties, DLF, and Prestige Estates Projects. These stocks have moved past their 200-day moving averages, suggesting a shift in momentum. The Nifty Realty index is also reflecting this strength, with technical indicators hinting at further potential toward the 1,050 to 1,130 range.
Midcap and smallcap stocks are also expected to continue their momentum. The Nifty Midcap 100 index recently touched a record high, and the Nifty Smallcap index is approaching a similar breakout. Within the banking space, specific stocks like RBL Bank are noted for technical patterns that could suggest upward movement toward the 420 to 425 range.
IT Sector and Crude Oil Outlook
The outlook for the IT sector remains cautious. While the reward-to-risk balance has improved for some stocks, major support levels remain 10% to 15% below current prices. The IT index is currently at a monthly support level near 26,000, and it is likely to continue underperforming the broader market. Consequently, fresh trading positions in the IT sector are currently not recommended.
Meanwhile, crude oil is in a confirmed downward trend. Although short-term bounces toward $81 to $82 per barrel are possible, the long-term trend suggests the price may eventually test support levels between $58 and $60. Investors tracking commodity-linked stocks or those sensitive to oil prices should monitor these levels closely, as the current strategy for crude oil remains selling on rallies.