Whalesbook
Record Growth Fuels Utility-Scale Boom
India's solar sector saw rapid expansion in 2025, adding a record 36.6 GW of new capacity. This represented a significant 42.7% increase year-on-year, bringing the nation's total installed solar power to 135.5 GW by year-end. The utility-scale segment drove much of this growth, commissioning 29.5 GW. The market was marked by a major reshuffle, with 35 new companies entering the top ten across key segments, showing more competition and changing market dynamics.
Leaders Emerge in Rooftop and Utility Segments
Adani Green Energy remained the top utility-scale developer, commissioning about 5 GW. NTPC Green Energy followed with 2 GW, working towards its goal of 60 GW renewable capacity by 2030. SJVN Green Energy took third place with 1 GW commissioned in Rajasthan. The open access segment added 7.8 GW in 2025, with Gentari Renewables becoming a leading developer in both annual and cumulative capacity. Adani Green Energy also showed strength in energy sales on the Green Day-Ahead Market (G-DAM), holding 38% of traded electricity.
In rooftop solar, Tata Power Solar kept its lead, capturing 19% of installations and confirming its status as a top EPC company.
Manufacturing Boosted by ALMM-II, Competition Grows
Chinese firms Trina Solar and Jinko Solar continued to dominate module supply. However, Waaree Energies remained the leading domestic supplier. A major shift is expected with the upcoming ALMM-II policy (aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing), designed to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on Chinese imports for solar cells, where companies like Tongwei Solar, Jietai, and SolarSpace previously led. Goldi Solar added the most module capacity, while Waaree Energies kept its lead in cumulative installed capacity. Waaree Energies reported strong revenue growth, reaching about INR 144.4 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2025, with a trailing twelve-month revenue of $2.52 billion as of December 2025.
Valuation Contrasts and Market Pressures
Financials show different pictures for key players. Adani Green Energy has a high P/E ratio (100-120 as of April 2026), suggesting strong growth expectations. NTPC, a state-owned giant, trades lower with a P/E of 14-22, below the power industry average of 21.65, possibly indicating value. SJVN's P/E ratio is in a moderate-to-high range, around 30-42 as of April 2026. Waaree Energies, privately held, reported significant revenue and a market capitalization of $9.5 billion as of April 2026. Gentari Renewables, a subsidiary of Petronas, has a 4.8 GW utility-scale portfolio in India and plans for 2.0 GW more installed or under construction.
The wider competitive scene is shaped by global manufacturing overcapacity, with China dominating polysilicon, ingot, and wafer production. India's push for self-reliance, backed by ALMM-II, aims to rebalance the global supply chain. Despite strong demand, developers have faced module shortages and grid connection delays. Many new entrants suggest growing pressure on profit margins and a possible trend towards consolidation.
Execution and Policy Risks Loom
While India's solar market offers substantial growth, risks require caution. Heavy reliance on major developers like Adani Green and NTPC could create dependency risks. The rapid influx of 35 new companies means tougher competition, potentially squeezing profit margins for everyone. Successful ALMM-II implementation is key for domestic makers, but scaling up upstream production (polysilicon, wafers) and supply chain issues remain challenges. Grid connection problems and transmission limits remain significant hurdles, risking project delays and impacting returns. While government policies drive growth, they also bring regulatory risks. High P/E ratios for players like Adani Green suggest the market expects significant future growth, leaving little room for error if execution falters or regulations change.
Positive Outlook Amid Evolving Market
India's solar sector trajectory remains positive, driven by supportive government policies, expanding domestic manufacturing, and strong demand from businesses. More projects include battery energy storage systems (BESS) and hybrid systems, showing a maturing market focused on reliable renewable power. Expect continued policy support for domestic manufacturing and faster consolidation as the market matures, favoring companies with strong execution, innovation, and diverse projects.