Whalesbook
India's Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has signaled a tougher stance against prediction markets by blocking Polymarket and potentially targeting Kalshi.
The government views these platforms as online money gaming, not financial innovation, leading to blocking orders aimed at capital control and financial stability.
Regulatory Tightening
Polymarket has been officially blocked in India. Internet providers were directed to cut off access based on the government's classification of such platforms as "illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms." This directive, issued on April 25, aims to curb activities seen as a risk to financial stability. The underlying law cited is the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025, which categorizes prediction markets as online money gaming.
Kalshi's Potential Block
While Kalshi, a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-regulated platform, is still accessible, MeitY sources suggest a blocking order is imminent, possibly by Friday, May 22, 2026. This potential ban on Kalshi demonstrates India's increasing efforts to restrict access to virtual betting and prediction market platforms, regardless of their regulatory status elsewhere.
India's Stance on Crypto and Gaming
These actions align with India's cautious approach to digital assets and online gaming. Previous heavy taxation on cryptocurrencies, including a 30% flat tax and a 1% TDS, has significantly reduced domestic trading. This policy suggests the government views private cryptocurrencies and similar virtual platforms as speculative "money games," prioritizing financial stability and capital control over unproven financial innovation.
Future Outlook
Platforms in the prediction market and virtual betting sectors are likely to face continued challenges in India. The government's classification and enforcement actions point to a preference for strict controls over these digital financial activities, with a focus on consumer protection and financial system integrity.