Whalesbook
Regulatory Defiance Amidst Ban
Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. are allowing customers in India to access their prediction markets, a move directly contravening the country's technology ministry's recent warnings. The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology explicitly identified these platforms as "illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms" that should be inaccessible due to "domestic prohibitions."
Government Crackdown Intensifies
A letter dated April 25th was sent to VPN providers, warning them of "consequential legal action" if they facilitated access to these prohibited venues. This advisory preceded a new national law aimed at curbing online gambling, which officially took effect on May 1.
Platform Responses and Legal Stance
Kalshi has stated it is in communication with the Indian government and has not been instructed to cease operations, continuing to onboard new customers who undergo identity checks. Polymarket, which does not list India among its restricted countries, asserts its commitment to complying with applicable laws and employs geoblocking measures, though users have reported ways to circumvent these.
High-Volume Betting on Indian Events
Significant trading volume has been observed on Kalshi for Indian Premier League matches, at times rivaling that of US baseball games. One match alone saw $27.7 million traded across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Regulatory Expert Opinions
Legal experts confirm that under the new Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules (PROGA), enacted last August and effective May 1, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi fall under a broad ban on "online money games." Many domestic platforms ceased operations following the law's passage.
Investor Protection Concerns
Even before the new law, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) cautioned investors that these "opinion trading" platforms offer no investor protection and are not agency-overseen, leaving users with limited recourse.